Are we at peak Corona?
October 29th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Over by end November?
2020
Of course the major story of 2020 has been the Corona Virus pandemic which has swept around the world. It started late last year so it’s called COVID 19, meaning it has now been around almost a year. The number of cases world wide has surged again in October. But we now think we are getting close to the end.
3rd wave
Looking back, this is the third not second wave of global cases we’re in (not including China last year). The first was in March to Mid April which saw cases rise to about 75,000 a day. The second was in July when cases almost quadrupled to 300,000 at the peak. In October cases have risen to over 530,000 last week.
US
One of the first signs that we may be close to a peak is the divergence with the US which has the largest total cases . US cases went up to 34,000 in the first wave. In the second wave they doubled to 75,000. This time cases reached 80,000 almost flat. This shows the US case growth is slowing, relatively.
Herd
In the Spanish & swine flus it is estimated between 20% to 30% of the population was infected, suggesting this is the level for herd immunity. If we assume the US deaths at 230,000 is 2/3rds of actual 350,000 & the mortality rate is 0.5%, then we get a very rough estimate 70m total cases or 22% of the population.
End November
If the US is close to herd then we are close to a peak in cases. The timing works perfectly too. Each up in daily cases is about 4 to 6 weeks meaning we are close to a peak. Cases should decline for about the same time, meaning by end November, Corona may no longer be the story of 2020.
Of course the major story of 2020 has been the Corona Virus pandemic which has swept around the world. It started late last year so it’s called COVID 19, meaning it has now been around almost a year. The number of cases world wide has surged again in October. But we now think we are getting close to the end.
3rd wave
Looking back, this is the third not second wave of global cases we’re in (not including China last year). The first was in March to Mid April which saw cases rise to about 75,000 a day. The second was in July when cases almost quadrupled to 300,000 at the peak. In October cases have risen to over 530,000 last week.
US
One of the first signs that we may be close to a peak is the divergence with the US which has the largest total cases . US cases went up to 34,000 in the first wave. In the second wave they doubled to 75,000. This time cases reached 80,000 almost flat. This shows the US case growth is slowing, relatively.
Herd
In the Spanish & swine flus it is estimated between 20% to 30% of the population was infected, suggesting this is the level for herd immunity. If we assume the US deaths at 230,000 is 2/3rds of actual 350,000 & the mortality rate is 0.5%, then we get a very rough estimate 70m total cases or 22% of the population.
End November
If the US is close to herd then we are close to a peak in cases. The timing works perfectly too. Each up in daily cases is about 4 to 6 weeks meaning we are close to a peak. Cases should decline for about the same time, meaning by end November, Corona may no longer be the story of 2020.
