GJTL, an extremely cheap stock
Target price Rp4,027
Last 12-months cashflow +Rp 2.15 trillion
March 9th,, 2021
1 minute read
1 minute read
- Sales increased by 4% in the fourth quarter to Rp 3.82 trillion which was 0% different from our forecast! This is after a 73% surge in the third quarter.
- Average quarterly growth is now at 7%.
- We expect growth to be 5% a quarter this next 12 months & sales to reach Rp 4.54 trillion by fourth quarter of 2021.
- Cashflow jumped to Rp 1 trillion in the fourth quarter up from Rp 777 billion in the third quarter despite higher investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now at Rp 537 billion.
- Using the same quarterly investment spending of Rp 157 billion, with higher sales, we predict average quarterly free Cashflow of Rp 281 billion in this next 12 months.
Sales recovering, huge Cashflow, de leveraging, an 11% yield, shares to quadruple...
- The balance sheet leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -Rp 9.9 trillion in the fourth quarter from -Rp 11.1 trillion in the third quarter & -Rp 12 trillion a year ago.
- With our forecast higher average cashflow & a dividend payout of Rp 330 billion...
- ...net cash will improve further to be -Rp 9 trillion in 12 months time.
- Net profit was Rp 424 billion in the fourth quarter up from Rp 36 billion in the third quarter on FX gains.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales improved to 89%.
- We use the same 89% costs to predict a much higher next 12 months profit, Rp 1.1 trillion.
- GJTL has paid capital of Rp 2.8 trillion in the last six years.
- At the current market value of Rp 3 trillion, it’s 1X capital paid 0.18X sales, 0.17X assets, 0.4X equity with a 14% profitability & a 10.9% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is Rp 1.1 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.2X adjustment, gives a higher target price of Rp4,027.