Other stocks here
FREN, a clearer picture
🎯 📱 📈 Rp135
Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 6 trillion ⬆️
November 18th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Sales
Sales had another strong quarter, rising by +10% from the second, after a +16% gain in the second quarter. At Rp 2.54 trillion, sales were 4% ahead of our forecast. Data continues to lead with growth of +11%. We expect sales to continue along the current trend & will reach Rp 3.34 trillion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
Cashflow is still very negative & was at -Rp 1 trillion in the third quarter, but that’s much better than the -Rp 1.7 trillion in the second. Investment spending was lower. We use the same investment spending for this next 12 months, which when combined with the higher sales gives an average positive quarterly free cashflow of Rp 58 billion.
Sales had another strong quarter, rising by +10% from the second, after a +16% gain in the second quarter. At Rp 2.54 trillion, sales were 4% ahead of our forecast. Data continues to lead with growth of +11%. We expect sales to continue along the current trend & will reach Rp 3.34 trillion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
Cashflow is still very negative & was at -Rp 1 trillion in the third quarter, but that’s much better than the -Rp 1.7 trillion in the second. Investment spending was lower. We use the same investment spending for this next 12 months, which when combined with the higher sales gives an average positive quarterly free cashflow of Rp 58 billion.
Sales up again, cashflow less negative on lower investment, positive cashflow ahead, a more modest but still higher target price ...
Balance sheet
The negative cashflow meant that the balance sheet net debt increased again to Rp 9.84 trillion in the third quarter, up from Rp 9.27 trillion in the second quarter. With our forecast for finally some positive cashflow & including a small equity payment of Rp 55 billion, the net debt will improve to Rp 8.46 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
The net losses were back, after a solo (FX) profit in the second quarter, -Rp 530 billion in the third, held back by FX losses. The cash cost ratio, net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales was 74%. We use the same 74% costs to predict a lower next 12 months loss -Rp 704 billion.
Value
FREN has raised a lot of capital, Rp 22.3 trillion by the third quarterly. At current value Rp 16.9 trillion, it’s 1.45X sales, 0.5X assets, 1.65X equity with no profitability & a small 0.3% yield. Our cashflow forecast (two furthest away quarters annualized) is Rp 924 billion. At 1.6% with a very generous 0.6X adjustment, gives a target price, Rp135.
The negative cashflow meant that the balance sheet net debt increased again to Rp 9.84 trillion in the third quarter, up from Rp 9.27 trillion in the second quarter. With our forecast for finally some positive cashflow & including a small equity payment of Rp 55 billion, the net debt will improve to Rp 8.46 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
The net losses were back, after a solo (FX) profit in the second quarter, -Rp 530 billion in the third, held back by FX losses. The cash cost ratio, net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales was 74%. We use the same 74% costs to predict a lower next 12 months loss -Rp 704 billion.
Value
FREN has raised a lot of capital, Rp 22.3 trillion by the third quarterly. At current value Rp 16.9 trillion, it’s 1.45X sales, 0.5X assets, 1.65X equity with no profitability & a small 0.3% yield. Our cashflow forecast (two furthest away quarters annualized) is Rp 924 billion. At 1.6% with a very generous 0.6X adjustment, gives a target price, Rp135.
