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EXCL
EXCL, yes they’re paying out capital
🎯 📱 📈 Rp6,095
Last 12 months cashflow +Rp3,150bn ⬆️
August 30th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
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Sales
Sales growth in 2Q remained positive at +5% from a year ago, +1% from the 1Q, which is well above the average growth & 2% ahead of our forecast. The key data sales continues to grow double digits at +15%. We expect sales to keep on this growth path which is a slightly faster +7.5%, Rp27.9tn the next 12 months.
Cashflow
Cashflow was lower in the 2Q after the asset sales in the 1Q, at Rp272bn excluding working capital. That’s below our forecast. But the trend of cashflow has been improving as sales have grown & investment spending is a little slower. With our sales growth & continued lower investment, we predict average 12 months quarterly cashflow will rise to Rp522bn.
Sales growth in 2Q remained positive at +5% from a year ago, +1% from the 1Q, which is well above the average growth & 2% ahead of our forecast. The key data sales continues to grow double digits at +15%. We expect sales to keep on this growth path which is a slightly faster +7.5%, Rp27.9tn the next 12 months.
Cashflow
Cashflow was lower in the 2Q after the asset sales in the 1Q, at Rp272bn excluding working capital. That’s below our forecast. But the trend of cashflow has been improving as sales have grown & investment spending is a little slower. With our sales growth & continued lower investment, we predict average 12 months quarterly cashflow will rise to Rp522bn.
Sales growth, lower investment to boost cashflow, debt to reduce, payouts & shares to rise
Balance sheet
The balance sheet is in net debt if we include the huge lease liabilities. This means our free cashflow is positive but the debt has risen.... As of 2Q net debt was at Rp28.2tn, down from 1Q peak Rp30.7tn. With our forecast positive cashflow & a higher Rp561bn equity payout, net debt will fall to Rp26.6tn in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit in the 2Q was unchanged from a year ago, despite the much higher depreciation expenses from the leases. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as % of sales was much lower at 62% from 70%. But we use the average 66% to get a lower profit of Rp548bn in the next 12 months.
Value
Despite the higher debt, yes, cashflow-wise EXCL has paid out capital & that trend is now accelerating. At Rp27.3tn, it’s worth 0.98x sales, 0.4x the assets & 1.3x the equity with a 2.6% profitability. That’s cheap. Yield is 2.1%. Our cashflow forecast is almost unchanged at Rp2.09tn which at 1.6% with a 0.5x adjustment, gives a much higher target Rp6,095.
The balance sheet is in net debt if we include the huge lease liabilities. This means our free cashflow is positive but the debt has risen.... As of 2Q net debt was at Rp28.2tn, down from 1Q peak Rp30.7tn. With our forecast positive cashflow & a higher Rp561bn equity payout, net debt will fall to Rp26.6tn in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit in the 2Q was unchanged from a year ago, despite the much higher depreciation expenses from the leases. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as % of sales was much lower at 62% from 70%. But we use the average 66% to get a lower profit of Rp548bn in the next 12 months.
Value
Despite the higher debt, yes, cashflow-wise EXCL has paid out capital & that trend is now accelerating. At Rp27.3tn, it’s worth 0.98x sales, 0.4x the assets & 1.3x the equity with a 2.6% profitability. That’s cheap. Yield is 2.1%. Our cashflow forecast is almost unchanged at Rp2.09tn which at 1.6% with a 0.5x adjustment, gives a much higher target Rp6,095.
