## EXCL, only 0.38X assets

Target price Rp8,773

Last 12-month cashflow +Rp 3.25 trillion

February 15th,, 2021

1 minute read

Sales

Cashflow

1 minute read

Sales

- Sales declined in the fourth quarter -1% to Rp 6.35 trillion after +2% growth in the third quarter & were 4% below forecast.
- Digital sales declined even more, -3%. Average quarterly growth is at +4%.
- We expect the same 4% average growth in this next 12 months & sales to rise to Rp 7.3 trillion by the fourth quarter 2021.

Cashflow

- Cashflow turned negative -Rp 1.15 trillion in the fourth quarter on negative working capital after +Rp 1.6 trillion in the third quarters .
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now Rp 813 billion.
- Investment spending was Rp 1.6 trillion. We use this same spending, which with higher sales gives an average quarterly Cashflow of Rp 748 billion in this next 12 months.

## Sales growth, cashflow, profit negative, but expecting a return to positive, only 0.38X assets, much higher target price...

Balance sheet

Profit

Value

- The balance sheet leverage of cash minus total liabilities was higher at -Rp 45.5 trillion in the fourth quarter from -Rp 44.5 trillion in the third quarter & -Rp 42 trillion a year ago.
- With our forecast for more positive free cashflow & a higher dividend Rp 560 billion....
- ...net cash will be -Rp 41.4 trillion in 12 months time.

Profit

- There was a -Rp 1.7 trillion net loss in the fourth quarter from +Rp 331 billion profit in the third quarter on high non-cash costs.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non-cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was low at 46%.
- We use 59% costs to predict a next 12 months profit, Rp 1.9 trillion.

Value

- EXCL has paid our capital of Rp 12.6 trillion in the last six years.
- At the current market value of Rp 24.7 trillion, it’s 1.97X capital paid, 0.89X sales, 0.38X assets, 1.21X equity with a 9% profitability & a 2.3% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is Rp 2.98 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a higher target price, Rp8,773.