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EXCL, expecting a return to strong cashflow
Current, target price Rp2,030, 7,961 (+292%)
April 27th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, down again
Cashflow, negative again
1 minute read
Sales, down again
- Sales decreased again by -4% in the first quarter to 6,247 billion rupiah, which is -6% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a -1% decrease in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 0%.
- We predict positive average growth of 2% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 6,820 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, negative again
- Cashflow was negative again too -1,100 billion rupiah in the first quarter after negative -1,163 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 894 billion rupiah.
- We use the same investment spending of -1,690 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a similar average quarterly cashflow of 848 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Sales down again, cashflow negative again, but expecting a return to strong cashflow, capital payouts rising to eighteen trillion rupiah makes it very cheap at only 1.2X, much higher target price...
Balance sheet, but lower leverage
Profit, good margins
Value, only 1.2X forecast capital paid
- The net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -44,946 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -45,642 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -47,882 billion rupiah a year ago, from positive cashflow.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -651 billion rupiah...
- ...net cash will improve to -40,516 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, good margins
- Net profit was back to positive at 321 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -1,703 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -56%.
- We use the same -56% costs, to predict a positive next 12 months profit of 2,170 billion rupiah.
Value, only 1.2X forecast capital paid
- EXCL cumulative net capital is at +13,008 billion rupiah in the last six years.
- At the current market value of 21,621 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s only 1.20X capital paid, 0.80X sales, 0.34X assets, 1.03X equity, with a 10.3% profitability & a 3.0% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 3,392 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment, gives a 292% higher target price of 7,961 rupiah.
