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EXCL, sales jump to a record
Current, target price 2,530, 4,519 (+79%)
August 16th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales jump to a record
Costs stable
1 minute read
Sales jump to a record
- Sales grew by 8% in the second quarter to a record 6,727 billion rupiah which is slightly below our forecast 6,820 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 1%.
- We predict average growth of 2% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 7,207 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs stable
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up slightly to -57% in the second quarter & profit was 396 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -55%.
- We use the average -55% costs to predict a 733 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow to positive again
Balance sheet, slightly higher leverage
Value, only 0.42X assets
- Cashflow was a less negative -327 billion rupiah despite higher investment spending of -2,114 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now at -995 billion rupiah.
- We use lower -1,690 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a positive 455 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, slightly higher leverage
- Cash increased from 1,516 to 2,406 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities also increased from 46,462 to 47,963 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -44,946 to -45,557 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -786 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will be -40,476 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, only 0.42X assets
- EXCL capital from the last six years worsened to 11,995 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 26,990 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.96X sales & 0.42X assets with a 3% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 1,507 billion rupiah. At 32X (a 3% yield), this gives a 79% higher target price of 4,519 rupiah.
