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EXCL, fast recovering cashflow
🎯 📱 📈 Rp6.195
Last 12-month cashflow +Rp2,040 billion ⬆️
November 10th, 2020
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Sales
Sales growth was flat in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. Customers increased +2%, but ARPU & data sales had 0% change. At Rp 6.57 trillion, sales were 2% below our forecast. EXCL has had faster sales growth than ISAT but we predict it will be slower in this next 12 months at +3.4% to Rp 26.96 trillion.
Cashflow
Cashflow has had some wild swing on a quarterly basis, but on average is much improved as investment spending has slowed. The average quarterly free cashflow is now Rp 510 billion. We reduce our investment spending forecast a bit, which together with our sales prediction gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of Rp 528 billion in this next 12 months.
Sales growth was flat in the third quarter compared to the second quarter. Customers increased +2%, but ARPU & data sales had 0% change. At Rp 6.57 trillion, sales were 2% below our forecast. EXCL has had faster sales growth than ISAT but we predict it will be slower in this next 12 months at +3.4% to Rp 26.96 trillion.
Cashflow
Cashflow has had some wild swing on a quarterly basis, but on average is much improved as investment spending has slowed. The average quarterly free cashflow is now Rp 510 billion. We reduce our investment spending forecast a bit, which together with our sales prediction gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of Rp 528 billion in this next 12 months.
Sales growth slows, but lower investment boosting cashflow, debt to reduce, payouts & shares to rise
Balance sheet
The balance sheet net debt has increased in the past two years from Rp 22 trillion to now Rp 28.8 trillion including higher lease liabilities. But AirBnB better cashflow it’s down from Rp 30 trillion in the first quarter. With our cashflow forecast & a Rp 433 billion dividend, net debt will be Rp 24 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was up +48% from the second quarter to Rp 331 billion with lower depreciation. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus saws as a % of sales was slightly lower at 61% from 62%. We use 62% to predict a 13 months net profit Rp 1.44 trillion lower then before because of lower tower sales.
Value
EXCL has started paying capital again after a pause. The five year total is now Rp 13.6 trillion. At Rp 23.2 trillion, it’s 1.7X capital paid, 0.86X sales, 0.36X assets, 1.06X equity, with a 6.6% profitability & a 1.9% yield. Our cashflow forecast is now Rp 2.1 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a much higher target Rp6,195.
The balance sheet net debt has increased in the past two years from Rp 22 trillion to now Rp 28.8 trillion including higher lease liabilities. But AirBnB better cashflow it’s down from Rp 30 trillion in the first quarter. With our cashflow forecast & a Rp 433 billion dividend, net debt will be Rp 24 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit was up +48% from the second quarter to Rp 331 billion with lower depreciation. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus saws as a % of sales was slightly lower at 61% from 62%. We use 62% to predict a 13 months net profit Rp 1.44 trillion lower then before because of lower tower sales.
Value
EXCL has started paying capital again after a pause. The five year total is now Rp 13.6 trillion. At Rp 23.2 trillion, it’s 1.7X capital paid, 0.86X sales, 0.36X assets, 1.06X equity, with a 6.6% profitability & a 1.9% yield. Our cashflow forecast is now Rp 2.1 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a much higher target Rp6,195.
