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EXCL, a 62% higher target price
Current 2,930 Target 4,756 *62%
November 17th 2021
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Costs 2 points higher
Cashflow positive again
Balance sheet slightly lower leverage
Valuation, a 62% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
- Sales grew 1% in the third quarter to 6,826 billion rupiah vs our 6,862 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 3% in the next 12 months to bring sales to 7,524 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 2 points higher
- The cash cost ratio was higher at -59% in the third quarter giving a lower 300 billion rupiah net profit.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -57% now.
- We use the latest -59% cost ratio to predict a 587 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow positive again
- Free cashflow was back to positive at 1,471 billion rupiah in the third quarter with working capital & -1,571 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is still negative at -1,119 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -1,571 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 606 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet slightly lower leverage
- Cash increased from 2,406 to 3,670 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 47,963 to 48,763 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -45,557 to -45,093 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -563 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -40,047 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 62% higher target price
- EXCL capital from the last 27 quarters was higher at 11,887 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -150 billion rupiah liabilities & a -56 billion rupiah equity payment & will be 13,839 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 31,260 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.48 X assets with a 33 years payback & a 2% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,951 billion rupiah which means an 16 X valuation. A 26 X valuation gives a 62% target price of 4,756 rupiah.
