Can investing BW this easy?
February 10th, 2021
1 minute read
Difficult
Investing in the stock-market is famously difficult. There’s so many moving parts, fundamentals, valuations & market technicals. Investors & analysts spend many hours trying to work out the right combination of those & as we know from history, most will end up under performing. But, is it possible that in fact investing is really easy & not difficult at all?
Troubles
One clue that I have noticed that shows this might be true is that most of the troubles with investing are NOT from the any of the above three which are used for traditional analysis. You might have experienced this for yourself. The sorts of things which cause investing trouble are lack of money, sudden need for money or simply fear of the unknown which causes investors to lose the ability to hold onto their investments.
UNVR fundamentals
Here’s an example of how simple investing might be, seen through the recent results of blue-chip UNVR. Sales for 2020 ended almost exactly where they were in 2019 at about Rp 42.9 trillion & up from Rp 36.5 trillion in 2015. Cashflow Rp 7.7 trillion is even stronger, up from 2019’s Rp 7.2 trillion & Rp 4.9 trillion in 2015.
Shares
But what about the poor shares? The UNVR share price started to slowdown in 2018 when it hit Rp11,000. As sales stopped to grow in 2019 & 2020 the shares declined to today Rp7,100 which is below where they were in 2015! Sales & cashflow up while share price declined is a simple investment arbitrage which just needs some patience.
Volume clue
This shows how sensitive the stock market is. But it can also work the other way around & the price can quickly recover. One clue this might be going to happen soon is the increase in share trading . UNVR volume has spiked to a record 534 million shares in the last one month. Fundamentals show UNVR can almost double.
1 minute read
Difficult
Investing in the stock-market is famously difficult. There’s so many moving parts, fundamentals, valuations & market technicals. Investors & analysts spend many hours trying to work out the right combination of those & as we know from history, most will end up under performing. But, is it possible that in fact investing is really easy & not difficult at all?
Troubles
One clue that I have noticed that shows this might be true is that most of the troubles with investing are NOT from the any of the above three which are used for traditional analysis. You might have experienced this for yourself. The sorts of things which cause investing trouble are lack of money, sudden need for money or simply fear of the unknown which causes investors to lose the ability to hold onto their investments.
UNVR fundamentals
Here’s an example of how simple investing might be, seen through the recent results of blue-chip UNVR. Sales for 2020 ended almost exactly where they were in 2019 at about Rp 42.9 trillion & up from Rp 36.5 trillion in 2015. Cashflow Rp 7.7 trillion is even stronger, up from 2019’s Rp 7.2 trillion & Rp 4.9 trillion in 2015.
Shares
But what about the poor shares? The UNVR share price started to slowdown in 2018 when it hit Rp11,000. As sales stopped to grow in 2019 & 2020 the shares declined to today Rp7,100 which is below where they were in 2015! Sales & cashflow up while share price declined is a simple investment arbitrage which just needs some patience.
Volume clue
This shows how sensitive the stock market is. But it can also work the other way around & the price can quickly recover. One clue this might be going to happen soon is the increase in share trading . UNVR volume has spiked to a record 534 million shares in the last one month. Fundamentals show UNVR can almost double.
