Other stocks here

DOID, a 48% higher target price
Current 292 Target 432 +48%

November 26th 2021
1 minute read

Sales jumped 31%

• Sales jumped 31% in the third quarter to 248 million dollars vs our 208 million dollars forecast.
• This brings the quarterly average to 18% growth.
• We predict average growth of 5% to bring sales to 294 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.

​
Costs 9 point lower

• The cash cost ratio was 9 points lower at -77% in the third quarter giving a 17 million dollars net profit.
• The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -85% now.
• We use the latest -77% cost ratio to predict a 27 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.

​
Cashflow negative again with high investment spend

• Free cashflow was negative -99 million dollars in the third quarter with much higher -93 million dollars investment Cashflow.
• Average quarterly Cashflow is at -27 million dollars now.
• We assume lower -30 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 14 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.

Balance sheet, higher leverage again

• Cash increased from 105 to 357 million dollars in the third quarter.
• Liabilities increased from 779 to 1,144 million dollars so net cash worsened from -674 to -787 million dollars.
• With our forecast cashflow & a 0 million dollars equity payout net cash will be -657 million dollars in 12 months time.

​
Valuation capital negative again but should rebound, a 48% higher target price

• DOID capital from the last 23 quarters turned negative -158 million dollars in the third quarter with 349 billion rupiah new liabilities but will be positive again 230 million dollars in12 months time.
• At the current market value of 180 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.13 X assets with a 27 years payback & a 0% yield.
• Our cashflow forecast is 38 million dollars which means an 5 X valuation. A 7 X valuation gives a 48% higher target price of 432 rupiah.

Data file & model