## DOID, a 10% yield

🎯 ⛏ 📈 Rp1,657

Last 12-month cashflow +USD 118 million ⬆️

January 19th, 2021

1 minute read

Sales

Sales declined by -10% in the third quarter to USD 142 million after a -18% decline in the second quarter. The quarterly average sales growth is now at -9%. We predict the quarterly average growth will now turn positive, +10% in this next 12 months & sales will rise to USD 203 million by the third quarter of next year.

Cashflow

Cashflow slowed to USD 11 million in the third quarter after USD 40 million in the second quarter. The average quarterly cashflow is now at USD 38 million. Investment spending is close to zero, so we assume a small investment spend ahead, which together with higher sales gives an average USD 10 million quarterly cashflow in this next 12 months.

1 minute read

Sales

Sales declined by -10% in the third quarter to USD 142 million after a -18% decline in the second quarter. The quarterly average sales growth is now at -9%. We predict the quarterly average growth will now turn positive, +10% in this next 12 months & sales will rise to USD 203 million by the third quarter of next year.

Cashflow

Cashflow slowed to USD 11 million in the third quarter after USD 40 million in the second quarter. The average quarterly cashflow is now at USD 38 million. Investment spending is close to zero, so we assume a small investment spend ahead, which together with higher sales gives an average USD 10 million quarterly cashflow in this next 12 months.

## Sales growth to turn positive, positive cashflow on low investment spend, capital payouts to rise with 10% yield, much higher target price...

Balance sheet

The positive free cashflow in the last 12 months has improved the net cash minus liabilities minus leases to -USD 403 million as of the third quarter, from -USD 617 million a year ago. With our forecast positive free cashflow & a USD 22 million dividend, the net cash will improve further to -USD 331 million in 12 months time.

Profit

Net profit was lower at USD 4 million in the third quarter from USD 15 million in the second quarter. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 72%. We use the average 70% costs to predict a positive net profit of USD 73 million in this next 12 months.

Value

DOID has paid net capital of USD 147 million in the last five years. At the current market value of USD 224 million, it’s 1.5X capital paid, 0.3X sales, 0.2X assets, 0.7X equity with a 21.8% profitability & a 9.8% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 41 million. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment gives a higher target price, Rp1,657.

The positive free cashflow in the last 12 months has improved the net cash minus liabilities minus leases to -USD 403 million as of the third quarter, from -USD 617 million a year ago. With our forecast positive free cashflow & a USD 22 million dividend, the net cash will improve further to -USD 331 million in 12 months time.

Profit

Net profit was lower at USD 4 million in the third quarter from USD 15 million in the second quarter. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 72%. We use the average 70% costs to predict a positive net profit of USD 73 million in this next 12 months.

Value

DOID has paid net capital of USD 147 million in the last five years. At the current market value of USD 224 million, it’s 1.5X capital paid, 0.3X sales, 0.2X assets, 0.7X equity with a 21.8% profitability & a 9.8% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 41 million. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment gives a higher target price, Rp1,657.