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DCII, at 44X assets…
Current, target price 59,000, 10,386 (-82%)
August 8th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales rising again
Costs steady
1 minute read
Sales rising again
- Sales grew again, up by 18% in the second quarter to 203 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 266 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 3%
- We predict average growth of 9% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 288 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs steady
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add on cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was flat at -53% in the second quarter & profit was up again to 63 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -57%.
- We use the latest -53% costs to predict a 102 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow more negative
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Value, at 44X assets…
- Cashflow was more negative at -131 billion rupiah with investment spending of -149 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now -133 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -149 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a -15 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined in the second quarter from 138 to 109 billion rupiah.
- Liabilities increased from 1,676 to 1,748 billion rupiah so the net cash worsened from -1,538 to -1,639 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast positive cashflow & no equity payout yet, the net cash will worsen to -1,741 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, at 44X assets…
- DCII capital from the last four years worsened to -1,400 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 140,656 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 133X sales & 44 assets with a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 495 billion rupiah. At 50X, this gives a -82% lower target price of 10,386 rupiah.
