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DCII, a -56% lower target price
Current 44,950 Target 19,896 -56%
November 18th 2021
1 minute read
Sales grew another 14%
Costs up 3 points
Cashflow negative but almost positive
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a -56% lower target price
1 minute read
Sales grew another 14%
- Sales grew another 14% in the third quarter to 232 billion rupiah vs our 244 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 7% growth.
- We predict average growth of 6% in the next 12 months to bring sales to 292 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs up 3 points
- The cash cost ratio was 3 points higher at -56% in the third quarter giving a 62 billion rupiah net profit.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -56% now too.
- We use the latest -56% cost ratio to predict a 88 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow negative but almost positive
- Free cashflow was a small negative -1 billion rupiah in the third quarter with slightly lower -138 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at -105 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -138 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a -9 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined from 109 to 92 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 1,748 to 1,811 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -1,639 to -1,719 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -1,796 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a -56% lower target price
- DCII capital from the last 19 quarters improved to -1,384 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -16 billion rupiah liabilities payment but will worsen to -1,461 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 107,161 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 33 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our operating cashflow forecast is 474 billion rupiah which means an 226 X valuation. A 100 X valuation gives a -56% lower target price of 19,896 rupiah.
