## CTRA, huge sales

Current, target price Rp1,150, 1,714 (+49%)

April 16th, 2021

1 minute read

Sales, HUGE

Cashflow, but non cash

1 minute read

Sales, HUGE

- Sales increased by 167% in the fourth quarter to 3.83 trillion rupiah which is 115% above our forecast!
- This is after growth of 11% in the third-quarter and brings the average quarterly growth to 29%.
- We’re forecasting average quarterly growth of 7% in this next 12 months, meaning sales of .3.13 trillion rupiah by the fourth quarter of 2021.

Cashflow, but non cash

- The high sales were not reflected in cashflow with fourth quarter Cashflow of 441 billion rupiah which is lower than 456 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now +94 billion rupiah.
- We assume the same investment spending of 140 billion rupiah a quarter, which with higher sales gives a higher average quarterly Cashflow of 254 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

## Huge sales, but not all cash, high leverage still, but expecting stronger Cashflow & a higher target price...

Balance sheet, high leverage

Profit,

Value, only 0.46X assets

- With positive cash flow the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -16.5 trillion rupiah in the fourth quarter from -17.5 trillion rupiah in the third quarter but up from 14.2 trillion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of 129 billion rupiah...
- ...the net cash will be -15.6 trillion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit,

- With huge sales, net profit was 1.12 trillion rupiah in the fourth quarter from 86 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was down to 69%.
- We use an average 81% costs to predict a similar 1.3 trillion net profit in this next 12 months.

Value, only 0.46X assets

- CTRA has raised 5.66 trillion rupiah of capital in the last six years.
- At the current market value of 18.2 trillion rupiah, it’s at 2.2X sales, 0.46X assets, 1X equity with a 6.9% profitability & a 0.7% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1 trillion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a 49% higher target price of Rp1,713.