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CSRA, turning net capital payer, shares to triple!
🎯 🌴 📈 Rp1,179
Last 12-month cashflow +Rp 39 billion ⬆️
November 21st, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Sales
We don’t know too much about this newly listed plantation company, but it is rising up our growth chart. Sales jumped by +66% from the second to the third quarter & at Rp 190 billion were 51% ahead of our forecast. We raise our forecast for sales to now reach Rp 233 billion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
Cashflow has turned positive in 2020 & was at Rp 11 billion in the third quarter, but below our Rp 18 billion forecast. Investment spending was at Rp 17 billion but we use a higher Rp 20 billion which when combined with our higher sales gives an average quarterly free cashflow of Rp 24 billion in this next 12 months.
We don’t know too much about this newly listed plantation company, but it is rising up our growth chart. Sales jumped by +66% from the second to the third quarter & at Rp 190 billion were 51% ahead of our forecast. We raise our forecast for sales to now reach Rp 233 billion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
Cashflow has turned positive in 2020 & was at Rp 11 billion in the third quarter, but below our Rp 18 billion forecast. Investment spending was at Rp 17 billion but we use a higher Rp 20 billion which when combined with our higher sales gives an average quarterly free cashflow of Rp 24 billion in this next 12 months.
Turning into a net capital payer, shares to 3X!
Balance sheet
With the positive cashflow plus some positive working capital, the balance sheet net debt was lower at Rp 580 billion in the third quarter from Rp 634 billion in the second. With our forecast positive cashflow & a dividend payout of Rp 11 billion, the net debt will be down even further to Rp 494 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
With higher sales, net profit almost doubled from Rp 11 billion in the second quarter to Rp 21 billion in the third quarter. The cash cost ratio of profit add depreciation minus sales as a % of sales was 72%. We use a higher average 80% costs to predict the next 12 months profit will be much higher, Rp 108 billion.
Value
CSRA capital raised has come down to only Rp 25 billion & they will now turn net capital payer! At Rp 739 billion, it’s 1.7X sales, 0.5X assets, 1.1X equity with a 15.9% profitability & a 1.5% yield. Our cashflow forecast is now Rp 97 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a much higher target price of Rp1,474.
With the positive cashflow plus some positive working capital, the balance sheet net debt was lower at Rp 580 billion in the third quarter from Rp 634 billion in the second. With our forecast positive cashflow & a dividend payout of Rp 11 billion, the net debt will be down even further to Rp 494 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
With higher sales, net profit almost doubled from Rp 11 billion in the second quarter to Rp 21 billion in the third quarter. The cash cost ratio of profit add depreciation minus sales as a % of sales was 72%. We use a higher average 80% costs to predict the next 12 months profit will be much higher, Rp 108 billion.
Value
CSRA capital raised has come down to only Rp 25 billion & they will now turn net capital payer! At Rp 739 billion, it’s 1.7X sales, 0.5X assets, 1.1X equity with a 15.9% profitability & a 1.5% yield. Our cashflow forecast is now Rp 97 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment gives a much higher target price of Rp1,474.
