We’re in a commodity bull market, here’s how we know...
July 22nd, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
All rising trends
Commodities bull
We’ve said this before, but it’s worth saying again. We are in a commodity bull market. How do we know this? Well, while it’s possible to go into great detail on demand & supply, we like to keep things simple... the reason we know we’re in a commodity bull market is because the long term price trends are all rising!
2011 peak
Back in 2011, commodities were ridding high. Oil was above $100, palm oil above $1,000. Tim was $32,000, Nickel was just below $30,000. All large funds owned commodity stocks & commodity economies like Indonesia were growing fast. We didn’t know it at the time, but that was the peak. Commodity prices started to fall, Indonesia GDP growth slowed down too.
2015/16 lows
The rupiah declined, our stock market stalled too. The commodity prices declined severely. All but gold lost 50% even up to almost 70% of their value. Gold lost 30%. Larger investors sold out & commodity stocks fell off the radar, leaving many shareholders with large losses. We didn’t know it at that time, but 2015 2016 was (almost) the lowest.
Into 2020
From 2016 stock markets rose again, commodity prices & the commodity share prices too. But something still wasn’t right. Economies were still weak & even slowed further. Commodity prices cane back down again. Palm oil made a minor new low in 2019, tin in 2020. But gold rallied higher, while oil was odd one out, falling to a new low.
All rising
Now all the trends are rising. Gold is the clear leader, nickel is next closely followed by palmoil. Tin is starting to creep up again while oil is flattening out. Oil being lowest also means lower costs for all. Our Sharpfokus Saham has coverage of all these commodities. In total that’s almost 30 stocks or a third of our coverage.
We’ve said this before, but it’s worth saying again. We are in a commodity bull market. How do we know this? Well, while it’s possible to go into great detail on demand & supply, we like to keep things simple... the reason we know we’re in a commodity bull market is because the long term price trends are all rising!
2011 peak
Back in 2011, commodities were ridding high. Oil was above $100, palm oil above $1,000. Tim was $32,000, Nickel was just below $30,000. All large funds owned commodity stocks & commodity economies like Indonesia were growing fast. We didn’t know it at the time, but that was the peak. Commodity prices started to fall, Indonesia GDP growth slowed down too.
2015/16 lows
The rupiah declined, our stock market stalled too. The commodity prices declined severely. All but gold lost 50% even up to almost 70% of their value. Gold lost 30%. Larger investors sold out & commodity stocks fell off the radar, leaving many shareholders with large losses. We didn’t know it at that time, but 2015 2016 was (almost) the lowest.
Into 2020
From 2016 stock markets rose again, commodity prices & the commodity share prices too. But something still wasn’t right. Economies were still weak & even slowed further. Commodity prices cane back down again. Palm oil made a minor new low in 2019, tin in 2020. But gold rallied higher, while oil was odd one out, falling to a new low.
All rising
Now all the trends are rising. Gold is the clear leader, nickel is next closely followed by palmoil. Tin is starting to creep up again while oil is flattening out. Oil being lowest also means lower costs for all. Our Sharpfokus Saham has coverage of all these commodities. In total that’s almost 30 stocks or a third of our coverage.
Now you need to know which stock to buy.. Sharpfokus Saham, our 100 stock research is here
