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CLEO, cashflow up strongly
Current, target price 480, 664 (+38%)
July 23rd, 2021
1 minute read
Sales up strongly
Costs, strong margins
1 minute read
Sales up strongly
- Sales increased strongly by 23% in the second quarter to 292 billion rupiah which is above our forecast 284 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 8%.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 340 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs, strong margins
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was lower at -75% in the second quarter & profit was 50 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -76%.
- We use the same -75% costs to predict a 62 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow up strongly
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Value, 38% higher target price
- Cashflow was up strongly to 76 billion rupiah with investment spending of -31 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 57 billion rupiah.
- We use lower -21 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 61 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- With positive cashflow, cash increased from 57 to 91 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities increased slightly from 431 to 436 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -374 to -345 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming there’s a -68 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will improve to -180 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, 38% higher target price
- CLEO capital from the last five years improved to -367 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 5,709 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 4.4X sales & 3.9X assets with a 1.2% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 226 billion rupiah. At 35 (2.9% yield), this gives a 38% higher target price of 664 rupiah.
