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CLEO, cashflow turns positive
Current, target price IDR469, 620 (+32%)
Last, next 12-months cashflow +IDR 51, +198 billion

April 1st, 2021
1 minute read

Sales, up 12%
  • Sales jumped 12% in the fourth quarter to IDR 253 billion, which is 2% below our forecast.
  • This is after 2% growth in the third quarter & brings the average quarterly growth to -4%.
  • We forecast positive growth of 4% a quarter in the next 12 months which will bring sales up to IDR 307 billion by the fourth quarter 2021.

Cashflow, 12 months positive
  • Cashflow also increased to IDR 59 billion in the fourth quarter up from IDR 46 billion in the third quarter.
  • The average quarterly Cashflow is now at IDR 13 billion.
  • Assuming the current investment spending of IDR 17 billion together with higher sales gives a much higher average quarterly free cashflow of IDR 50 billion in this next 12 months.

Sales up, strong margins, 12 month cashflow turns positive, debt down, paying back capital, higher target price...

Balance sheet de leveraging
  • With positive cashflow, the net leverage, cash minus total liabilities, was at -IDR 393 billion in the fourth quarter from -IDR 451 billion in the third quarter & -IDR 472 billion a year ago.
  • With our forecast higher free cashflow and assuming an IDR 54 billion dividend payment...
  • ... the net cash will be -IDR 249 billion in 12 months time.

Profit, strong margins
  • Net profit was higher at IDR 39 billion in the fourth quarter up from IDR 30 billion in the third quarter.
  • The cash cost ratio of net profit and back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was lower at 76%.
  • We use the same 76% to predict a higher next 12 months net profit of IDR 182 billion

Value, paying back capital
  • CLEO has raised capital of IDR 412 billion in the last five years.
  • At the current market value of IDR 5.6 trillion, it’s at 5X sales 4.13X assets 5.5X equity with a 17.8% profitability and a 1% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is IDR 198 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.6X adjustment gives a higher target price of IDR620.