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CEKA, a 24% yield
Current, target price 1,795, 5,762 (+221%)
August 5th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales up to a new high
Costs higher
1 minute read
Sales up to a new high
- Sales increased another 9% to a new high 1,203 billion rupiah which is close to our forecast 1,215 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly growth is now at 14%.
- We predict average growth of 5% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1,439 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2022.
Costs higher
- However the cash costs ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales increased again to -97% & profit fell in half to 27 billion rupiah.
- Average costs are though were flat at -95%,
- We use lower -94% costs to predict a 84 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow positive again
Balance sheet higher net cash
Value a 24% yield
- Cashflow was positive again 12 billion rupiah with lower investment spending of -10 billion rupiah,
- Avenge quarterly cashflow was less negative at -23 billion rupiah,
- We use the same -10 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives an 81 billion rupiah Cashflow in the second quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet higher net cash
- With a dividend payout, cash declined from 343 to 296 billion rupiah in he second quarter.
- Liabilities also declined from 270 to 213 billion rupiah so net cash increased again from 73 to 83 billion rupiah,
- With our forecast positive cashflow & a higher -254 billion rupiah equity payout, net cash will increase further to 132 billion rupiah,
Value a 24% yield
- CEKA capital from the last six years increased again to 968 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 1,068 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.20X sales, 0.71X assets with a 24% yield!
- Our cashflow forecast is 303 billion rupiah. At 32X (a 3% yield) this gives a 221% higher target price of 5,762 rupiah.
