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CAMP, a growing cash pile
Current, target price Rp276, 789 (+186%)
May 31st, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, lower again
Cashflow, strong cashflow
1 minute read
Sales, lower again
- Sales declined by -5% in the first quarter to 233 billion rupiah, which is -12% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a -4% decline in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 3%.
- We predict average growth of 5% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 276 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, strong cashflow
- Cashflow was positive 55 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 62 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 42 billion rupiah.
- We use flat investment spending of -11 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives an average quarterly cashflow of 31 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Lower sales again, but strong margins & cashflow & a growing cash pile, expecting a 5.9% yield but could be much higher, higher target price…
Balance sheet, higher net cash
Profit, stronger margin trend
Value, a 5.9% yield (possibly much higher)
- With positive cashflow, the net of cash minus total liabilities was +387 billion rupiah in the first quarter from +354 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & +237 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -96 billion rupiah...
- ...net cash will still rise to 415 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, stronger margin trend
- Net profit was 17 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 21 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter, as…
- …the cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales increased to -85%.
- We use the same -85% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 96 billion rupiah.
Value, a 5.9% yield (possibly much higher)
- CAMP cumulative net capital is at +360 billion rupiah from the last four years.
- At the current market value of 1,624 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 3.36X capital paid, 1.45X sales, 0.69X assets, 1.66X equity, with a 9.8% profitability & a 5.9% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 124 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.6X adjustment, gives a 186% higher target price of 789 rupiah.
