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CAMP, an 8% yield
Current 302 Target 609 +102%
November 10th 2021
1 minute read
Sales declined-3%
Costs 1 point higher
Cashflow lower from working capital
Balance sheet, cash rising higher
Valuation, an 8% yield
1 minute read
Sales declined-3%
- Sales declined -3% in the third quarter to 261 billion rupiah vs our 260 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 1% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 304 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 1 point higher
- The cash cost ratio was 1 point higher at -81% in the third quarter giving a 31 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -81% too.
- We use the latest -81% cost ratio to predict a 40 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow lower from working capital
- Free cashflow was 15 billion rupiah in the third quarter with negative working capital & -5 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 42 billion rupiah now.
- We assume the same -5 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 53 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, cash rising higher
- Cash increased from 568 to 583 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 157 to 145 billion rupiah so net cash increased further from 411 to 438 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -145 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be 492 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, an 8% yield
- CAMP capital from the last 27 quarters was flat at 360 billion rupiah in the third quarter & will be 532 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 1,777 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.59 X assets with a 3 years payback & a 8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 199 billion rupiah which means an 9 X valuation. An 18 X valuation gives a 102% higher target price of 609 rupiah.
