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CAMP, a 3.2% yield
🎯 🍦 📈 Rp495
Last 12-months cashflow +Rp 36 billion ⬇️
December 16th, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
Sales was up again in the third quarter by +3% from the second quarter. This brings the 12 month average growth back to up to 0%. At Rp 253 billion, sales were slightly higher than our Rp 251 billion forecast. We expect average quarterly growth to rise to +3% & reach Rp 294 billion by the third quarter next year.
Cashflow
Despite our close sales forecast, cashflow was lower than our forecast +Rp 16 billion at +Rp 8 billion in the third quarter. This was because investment spending was higher at Rp 26 billion. We expect investment spending to slow to Rp 20 billion which combined with higher sales gives an average quarterly cashflow Rp 12 billion this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales was up again in the third quarter by +3% from the second quarter. This brings the 12 month average growth back to up to 0%. At Rp 253 billion, sales were slightly higher than our Rp 251 billion forecast. We expect average quarterly growth to rise to +3% & reach Rp 294 billion by the third quarter next year.
Cashflow
Despite our close sales forecast, cashflow was lower than our forecast +Rp 16 billion at +Rp 8 billion in the third quarter. This was because investment spending was higher at Rp 26 billion. We expect investment spending to slow to Rp 20 billion which combined with higher sales gives an average quarterly cashflow Rp 12 billion this next 12 months.
Back to 0% sales growth, will now rise, higher cashflow, record cash means a 3.2% yield, higher target price...
Balance sheet
The positive free cashflow as well as some positive working capital meant an increase in the net cash to a new record high Rp 416 billion in the third quarter. With our forecast for higher cashflow & a dividend payment of Rp 50 billion, the net cash will be almost the same at Rp 413 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
With higher sales, net profit was also higher at Rp 8 billion from Rp 3 billion in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 89%. We use the average 88% costs to predict the next 12 months profit will be up +5% to Rp 50 billion.
Value
CAMP has paid out Rp 360 billion of capital in the last five years. At the current market value of Rp 1.56 trillion, it’s 4.34X capital paid, 1.43X sales, 1.43X assets, 1.63X equity with a 5.3% profitability & a 3.2% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 47 billion. At 1.6% with a 1X adjustment, gives a higher target price Rp495.
The positive free cashflow as well as some positive working capital meant an increase in the net cash to a new record high Rp 416 billion in the third quarter. With our forecast for higher cashflow & a dividend payment of Rp 50 billion, the net cash will be almost the same at Rp 413 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
With higher sales, net profit was also higher at Rp 8 billion from Rp 3 billion in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 89%. We use the average 88% costs to predict the next 12 months profit will be up +5% to Rp 50 billion.
Value
CAMP has paid out Rp 360 billion of capital in the last five years. At the current market value of Rp 1.56 trillion, it’s 4.34X capital paid, 1.43X sales, 1.43X assets, 1.63X equity with a 5.3% profitability & a 3.2% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 47 billion. At 1.6% with a 1X adjustment, gives a higher target price Rp495.
