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CAMP, we all scream for ice cream
🎯 🍦 📈 Rp589
Last 12-month cashflow +Rp73bn ⬆️
October 20th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
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Sales
Sales declined by -13% from a year ago to Rp247bn in the 2Q. This comes after a -4% decline in the 1Q. But sales did increase by +16.5% from the 1Q. We assume modest growth in this next 12 months of +4.8% which would bring sales up to Rp264bn by the 2Q 2021 or back to 4Q 2019 levels.
Cashflow
Cashflow was much weaker in the 2Q at only Rp1bn excluding working capital of -Rp10bn. This is despite investment spending slowing down to Rp13bn from Rp23bn in the 1Q. We assume that the low investment spending continues & when combined with our higher sales forecast, this gives a higher average quarterly free cashflow of +Rp18bn in this next 12 months.
Sales declined by -13% from a year ago to Rp247bn in the 2Q. This comes after a -4% decline in the 1Q. But sales did increase by +16.5% from the 1Q. We assume modest growth in this next 12 months of +4.8% which would bring sales up to Rp264bn by the 2Q 2021 or back to 4Q 2019 levels.
Cashflow
Cashflow was much weaker in the 2Q at only Rp1bn excluding working capital of -Rp10bn. This is despite investment spending slowing down to Rp13bn from Rp23bn in the 1Q. We assume that the low investment spending continues & when combined with our higher sales forecast, this gives a higher average quarterly free cashflow of +Rp18bn in this next 12 months.
Sales to rebound, cashflow too, cleanest balance sheet, higher dividend, higher share price...
Balance sheet
If there is ever an example of a ‘clean’ balance sheet, this is it. The balance sheet is in net cash & the net cash is rising, Rp358bn in the 2Q up from Rp348bn at the end of last year. With our forecast of positive cashflow & a higher dividend payment of Rp34bn, net cash will be Rp394bn in 12 months.
Profit
Like the cashflow, net profit also fell sharply by -76% from a year ago to Rp3bn as the cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales increased to 90%. We use the last 12-month average cost ratio of 86% to give a flat Rp68bn net profit for this next 12 months.
Value
CAMP has been paying out capital, Rp360bn so far since 2016. This will increase to Rp394bn in this next 12 months. At Rp1.61tn it’s 1.56x sales, 1.46x assets, 1.64x equity with a 7% profits & 2.1% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp70bn. Valuation at 1.6% with an 0.8x adjustment because of the net cash gives a higher target price of Rp589.
If there is ever an example of a ‘clean’ balance sheet, this is it. The balance sheet is in net cash & the net cash is rising, Rp358bn in the 2Q up from Rp348bn at the end of last year. With our forecast of positive cashflow & a higher dividend payment of Rp34bn, net cash will be Rp394bn in 12 months.
Profit
Like the cashflow, net profit also fell sharply by -76% from a year ago to Rp3bn as the cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales increased to 90%. We use the last 12-month average cost ratio of 86% to give a flat Rp68bn net profit for this next 12 months.
Value
CAMP has been paying out capital, Rp360bn so far since 2016. This will increase to Rp394bn in this next 12 months. At Rp1.61tn it’s 1.56x sales, 1.46x assets, 1.64x equity with a 7% profits & 2.1% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp70bn. Valuation at 1.6% with an 0.8x adjustment because of the net cash gives a higher target price of Rp589.
