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CAMP, an 8% yield
Current, target price 304, 928 (+205%)
August 5th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales jump 15%
Costs continue to improve
1 minute read
Sales jump 15%
- Sales jumped by 15% in the second quarter to 268 billion rupiah which is just below our forecast 280 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 2%
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 301 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs continue to improve
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add on cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to -80% in the second quarter & profit doubled to 33 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -84%.
- We use the latest -80% costs to predict a 40 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Higher average cashflow
Higher net cash
Expecting an 8% yield
- Cashflow was a bit lower 34 billion rupiah despite lower investment spending of -9 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- But average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to 53 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -9 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 51 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Higher net cash
- With positive cashflow, cash increased in the second quarter from 534 to 568 billion rupiah.
- Liabilities increased from 147 to 157 billion rupiah so the net cash increased further from 387 to 411 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast positive cashflow & a -137 billion rupiah equity payout, the net cash will still rise to 456 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Expecting an 8% yield
- CAMP capital from the last four years stayed flat at 360 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 1,789 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 1.63X sales, 1.57X assets with an 8% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 182 billion rupiah. At 30X (a 3.3% yield), this gives a 205% higher target price of 928 rupiah.
