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BYND, not so tasty
🎯 🥩 📈 USD76
Last 12-month cashflow -USD 73 million ⬇️
December 26th, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
Sales have had a difficult year & after a -17% decline in the third quarter are lower than fourth quarter last year. At USD 94 million, sales were 27% below our forecast USD 129 million. Retail sales dropped -30% while restaurants sales rebounded +70%. We expect growth to return & sales to reach USD 125 million by third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Negative free cashflow almost doubled in the third quarter to -USD 20 million from -USD 11 million in the second quarter as sales declined & investment spending stayed high. We now expect investment spending to reduce again & this combined with higher sales, will lead to a positive average quarterly cashflow of USD 2 million in this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales have had a difficult year & after a -17% decline in the third quarter are lower than fourth quarter last year. At USD 94 million, sales were 27% below our forecast USD 129 million. Retail sales dropped -30% while restaurants sales rebounded +70%. We expect growth to return & sales to reach USD 125 million by third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Negative free cashflow almost doubled in the third quarter to -USD 20 million from -USD 11 million in the second quarter as sales declined & investment spending stayed high. We now expect investment spending to reduce again & this combined with higher sales, will lead to a positive average quarterly cashflow of USD 2 million in this next 12 months.
Disappointing sales, even with a recovery, positive cashflow & rising cash, it’s still very expensive, lower target price...
Balance sheet
Net cash from new equity capital has been falling because of negative cashflow & reached USD 152 million in the third quarter from USD 160 million in the second quarter & USD 282 million a year ago. With positive cashflow ahead & a USD 4 million dividend, net cash will rise back to USD 160 million in 12 months time.
Profit
The third quarter net loss also doubled to -USD 20 million from -USD 10 million in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 109%. With higher sales the cost ratio will be lower, 94%, which predicts a next 12 months net profit of USD 14 million.
Value
BYND has raised a net capital of USD 323 million in the last three years. At the current market value of USD 8.6 billion, it’s 18.6X sales, 16.3X assets, 21.4X equity with a profitability of 3.5% & a 0% yield. Our annualized cashflow forecast is USD 9 million. At an aggressive 0.2% valuation, the target price is lower at USD76.
Net cash from new equity capital has been falling because of negative cashflow & reached USD 152 million in the third quarter from USD 160 million in the second quarter & USD 282 million a year ago. With positive cashflow ahead & a USD 4 million dividend, net cash will rise back to USD 160 million in 12 months time.
Profit
The third quarter net loss also doubled to -USD 20 million from -USD 10 million in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 109%. With higher sales the cost ratio will be lower, 94%, which predicts a next 12 months net profit of USD 14 million.
Value
BYND has raised a net capital of USD 323 million in the last three years. At the current market value of USD 8.6 billion, it’s 18.6X sales, 16.3X assets, 21.4X equity with a profitability of 3.5% & a 0% yield. Our annualized cashflow forecast is USD 9 million. At an aggressive 0.2% valuation, the target price is lower at USD76.
