BYND, lower target price
Target price USD41
Last 12-month cashflow -USD 115 million
March 3rd,, 2021
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- Sales increased again 8% in the fourth quarter to USD 102 million, 1% ahead of our forecast.
- This follows a -17% decline in the third quarter, +17% in the second & average quarterly growth is only 2%.
- We expect average growth to accelerate to 7% this next 12 months & sales to reach USD 133 million the fourth quarter 2021.
- Free cashflow was a bigger minus -USD 32 million in the fourth quarter from -USD 11 million in the third quarter as investment spending increased again.
- Average quarterly free Cashflow is -USD 29 million.
- We expect investment spending to slow & with higher sales, average free cashflow to turn to a positive USD 1 million in this next 12 months.
Sales rising again as economy opens, investment spending to slow, cashflow to turn positive, but too expensive, we cut our target price....
- The balance sheet leverage of cash minus total liabilities was +USD 58 million in the fourth quarter down from +USD 107 million in the third quarter & +USD 208 million a year ago.
- With our forecast for free cashflow to turn positive & assuming no dividend payout...
- ...net cash will be higher at +USD 63 million in 12 months time.
- The net loss increased to -USD 25 million in the fourth quarter from -USD 20 million in the third quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was higher at 113%.
- We use 94% costs as sales rise to predict a lower next 12 months loss, -USD 18 million.
- BYND has raised capital of USD 300 million in the last three years.
- At the current market value of USD 8.8 billion, it’s a very highly valued 17X sales, 20X assets, 20X equity.
- Our free cashflow forecast is now USD 5 million. At a pricey 0.2% Cashflow valuation with no adjustment, this gives a much lower target price of USD41.