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BYND, even lower target price
Current, target price USD102, 37 (-63%)

April 14th, 2021
1 minute read

Sales, up again
  • Sales increased again by 6% in the first quarter to 108 million dollars which is -8% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after an 8% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the average quarterly growth to 4%.
  • We expect better avenge quarterly growth of 5% in this next 12 months, which will bring sales up to 131 million dollars by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow , more negative
  • Cashflow was more negative at -54 million dollars in the first quarter after -32 million dollars in the fourth quarter on working capital.
  • The average quarterly Cashflow is now at -35.
  • We use lower investment spending of -6 million dollars which with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly cashflow of 1 million dollars in the next 12 months.

Sales up again, margins improve, but more negative cashflow, more capital raised, even with optimistic forecasts... an even lower target price...

Balance sheet, net cash turns negative
  • With negative cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -86 million dollars in the first quarter from +58 million dollars in the fourth quarter & +146 million dollars a year ago.
  • With our forecast small positive cashflow & assuming there is no equity payout...
  • ... the net leverage will be at -81 million dollars in 12 months time.

Profit, still loss
  • The net loss was -27 million dollars in the first quarter, similar to -25 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
  • The cash cost ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was -112%.
  • We use lower -94% costs to predict a lower next 12 months loss of -27 million dollars.

Value, still expensive
  • BYND net capital from the last four years is now at -1,320 million dollars after the convertible bond issue.
  • At the current market value of 6,397 million dollars, based on our forecasts, it’s still 13X sales, 4X assets, 27X equity with no profitability or yield yet.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 5 million dollars, at 1.6% with a 1X adjustment, gives a -63% lower target price of 37 dollars.