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BYND, a ‘slow’ 69% sales growth
🎯 🥩 📈 $97
Last 12 months cashflow -$55m ⬆️
September 12th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
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Sales
Sales growth slowed, if you can call it that, to just 69% in the 2Q. This is their first quarter of less than triple digits % growth but was still 4.6% above our forecast. Retail sales tripled, but restaurants fell in half, of course because of the closures. We predict 62% sales growth in this next 12 months to USD651m.
Cashflow
Cashflow is still negative excluding working capital at -USD11m in the 2Q, but that’s better than the recent average even with higher investment spending. We assume investment spending slows a bit in this next 12 months. & that this combined with our strong sales growth forecast, free cashflow will be able to finally come up to a quarterly average USD0.
Sales growth slowed, if you can call it that, to just 69% in the 2Q. This is their first quarter of less than triple digits % growth but was still 4.6% above our forecast. Retail sales tripled, but restaurants fell in half, of course because of the closures. We predict 62% sales growth in this next 12 months to USD651m.
Cashflow
Cashflow is still negative excluding working capital at -USD11m in the 2Q, but that’s better than the recent average even with higher investment spending. We assume investment spending slows a bit in this next 12 months. & that this combined with our strong sales growth forecast, free cashflow will be able to finally come up to a quarterly average USD0.
60% sales growth ➡️ positive cashflow, but not enough...
Balance sheet
Because of the equity raised in the IPO, the balance sheet is in net cash despite the continued negative cashflow. With negative working capital too, net cash fell to USD160m in the 2Q. With our forecast for cashflow now improving to flat, & with no equity payout, the net cash will be slightly higher at USD161m in 12 months time.
Profit
Despite sales growth, net profit was back to a loss -USD10m in the 2Q after a profit in the 1Q. The cash cost ratio of profit add non cash items minus sales as a % of sales increased again to 97%. We use the recent average 93% to predict a next 12 months profit of USD31m vs a previous loss.
Value
Of course BYND has been raising capital, USD377m the last few years, but will start to pay this next 12 months. At USD80bn it’s 12.9x sales, 15.6x assets, 19.9x equity with a 7.4% profitability & 0% yield. We the annualized fourth quarter cashflow USD9.1bn at 0.2% & a 1X adjustment because of the fast growth to give a target USD97.
Because of the equity raised in the IPO, the balance sheet is in net cash despite the continued negative cashflow. With negative working capital too, net cash fell to USD160m in the 2Q. With our forecast for cashflow now improving to flat, & with no equity payout, the net cash will be slightly higher at USD161m in 12 months time.
Profit
Despite sales growth, net profit was back to a loss -USD10m in the 2Q after a profit in the 1Q. The cash cost ratio of profit add non cash items minus sales as a % of sales increased again to 97%. We use the recent average 93% to predict a next 12 months profit of USD31m vs a previous loss.
Value
Of course BYND has been raising capital, USD377m the last few years, but will start to pay this next 12 months. At USD80bn it’s 12.9x sales, 15.6x assets, 19.9x equity with a 7.4% profitability & 0% yield. We the annualized fourth quarter cashflow USD9.1bn at 0.2% & a 1X adjustment because of the fast growth to give a target USD97.
