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BWPT, a 95% higher target price
Current 90 Target 175 +95%
November 10th 2021
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
Costs lower
Cashflow negative but average positive & rising
Balance sheet
Valuation, a 95% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales grew 1%
- Sales grew by1% in the third quarter to 779 billion rupiah vs our 890 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 21% growth.
- We predict average growth of 7% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 995 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs lower
- The cash cost ratio was lower at -91% in the third quarter giving a better -80 billion rupiah net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -83% now.
- We use an average -88% cost ratio to predict a -3 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow negative but average positive & rising
- Free cashflow was negative -132 billion rupiah in the third quarter from working capital & with higher -67 billion rupiah investment spending.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 67 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -37 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 86 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet
- Cash declined from 102 to 98 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 10,446 to 10,598 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -10,344 to -10,499 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -10,192 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 95% higher target price
- BWPT capital from the last 27 quarters worsened to -1,345 billion rupiah in the third quarter but will improve to -1,037 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 2,837 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.24 X assets with a 40 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 307 billion rupiah which means an 9 X valuation. An18 X valuation gives a 95% higher target price of 175 rupiah.
