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BWPT, only 0.25X assets
Current, target price Rp104, 302 (+191%)

  • Sales seasonally slightly lower,
  • margins improving,
  • cashflow higher & positive,
  • lower leverage,
  • paying back capital,
  • only 0.25X assets
June 1st , 2021
1 minute read

Sales, down seasonally
  • Sales declined seasonally by -1% in the first quarter to 581 billion rupiah, which is -1% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after a 49% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to -1%.
  • We predict average growth of 10% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 829 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, a higher positive
  • Cashflow was higher at 199 billion rupiah in the first quarter after 169 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 41 billion rupiah.
  • We use the latest investment Cashflow of +10 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 152 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
  • With asset sales, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -10,286 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -11,531 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -11,230 billion rupiah a year ago.
  • With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a small dividend payout of -10 billion rupiah...
  • ...net leverage will be -9,686 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, less negative margins
  • The net loss was higher at -1,295 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -344 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter on non cash costs.
  • The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down to -112%.
  • We use an average -83% costs, to predict a lower next 12 months loss of -26 billion rupiah.

Value , only 0.25X assets
  • BWPT cumulative net capital is at -1,376 billion rupiah from the last six years.
  • At the current market value of 3,024 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 0.95X sales, 0.25X assets, 1.41X equity, with no profitability yet & a 0.1% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 610 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.25X adjustment, gives a 191% higher target price of 302 rupiah.