BRPT, cashflow turns positive
Current, target price Rp1,020, 1,419 (+39%)
Last, next 12-months cashflow +USD 93, +168 million
March 29th, 2021
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- Sales jumped another 19% in the fourth quarter to USD 668 million which is 14% ahead of our forecast.
- This is after 13% growth in the third quarter & brings the average quarterly growth to +3%.
- We predict average quarterly growth of 3% again this next 12 months, bringing sales to USD 758 million by the fourth quarter of 2021.
- Cashflow was positive again, +USD 370 million in the fourth quarter after a negative -USD 167 million in the third quarter on lower investment.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is +USD 23 million.
- We use higher average investment spending USD 99 million, which with higher sales gives a higher average quarterly free cashflow of USD 32 million in this next 12 months.
Strong sales growth, cashflow turns positive on lower investment, only 0.4X assets, higher target price...
- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -USD 3.6 billion in the fourth quarter from -USD 3.64 billion in the third quarter, -USD 3.68 billion a year ago.
- With our forecast higher free cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of USD 16 million...
- ...the net cash will be -USD 3.49 billion in 12 months time.
- Net profit increased to USD 66 million in the fourth quarter from USD 52 million in the third quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was higher, 83%.
- With higher sales, we use 81% costs which predicts a doubling of profit to USD 314 million in this next 12 months.
- BRPT has raised USD 2.24 billion of capital in the last six years.
- At the current market value of USD 6.8 billion, it’s at 2.4X sales, only 0.4X assets, 2X equity with a 9.7% profitability & a 0.2% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is USD 168 million. At 1.6% with a 0.9X adjustment, gives a higher target price of Rp1,575.