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BOLA, season restart
🎯 ⚽️ 📈 Rp265
Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 147 billion ⬇️
December 23rd, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
From a low base, Rp 4 billion in the second quarter, sales jumped +341% in the third quarter to Rp 17 billion. That’s far above our Rp 6 billion forecast. Merchandise sales doubled to Rp 8 billion & sponsorship resumed at Rp 10 billion. We assume the season restarts & sales rise to Rp 54 billion by third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow, however was a big negative again -Rp 104 billion in the third quarter, as investment spending was up to a record Rp 155 billion. We assume investment spending drops as the season starts back to Rp 7 billion & with higher sales, we get a small positive average quarterly cashflow of Rp 2 billion in this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
From a low base, Rp 4 billion in the second quarter, sales jumped +341% in the third quarter to Rp 17 billion. That’s far above our Rp 6 billion forecast. Merchandise sales doubled to Rp 8 billion & sponsorship resumed at Rp 10 billion. We assume the season restarts & sales rise to Rp 54 billion by third quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow, however was a big negative again -Rp 104 billion in the third quarter, as investment spending was up to a record Rp 155 billion. We assume investment spending drops as the season starts back to Rp 7 billion & with higher sales, we get a small positive average quarterly cashflow of Rp 2 billion in this next 12 months.
Sales recover strongly, season to restart, higher sales, margins, lower investment, positive cashflow, share price target reached & upgraded....
Balance sheet
Because of the low sales, investment spending & the resulting negative cashflow, the net cash position post IPO has dropped from Rp 300 billion a year ago to Rp 124 billion as of the third quarter. With our small positive cashflow forecast & assuming there’s no dividend payment, net cash will rise to Rp 130 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
The net loss improved in the third quarter to -Rp 11 billion from -Rp 22 billion in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was better, 162%. With higher sales, we use 82% costs to predict a positive next 12 months net profit of Rp 32 billion.
Value
BOLA has raised Rp 400 billion of capital in the last three years. At the current market value of Rp 1 trillion, it’s 6.4X sales, 1.95X assets, 2.23X equity with a 6.6% profitability & no yield yet. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 25 billion. At 1.6% with a very generous 1X adjustment, this gives a higher target price of Rp265.
Because of the low sales, investment spending & the resulting negative cashflow, the net cash position post IPO has dropped from Rp 300 billion a year ago to Rp 124 billion as of the third quarter. With our small positive cashflow forecast & assuming there’s no dividend payment, net cash will rise to Rp 130 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
The net loss improved in the third quarter to -Rp 11 billion from -Rp 22 billion in the second quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was better, 162%. With higher sales, we use 82% costs to predict a positive next 12 months net profit of Rp 32 billion.
Value
BOLA has raised Rp 400 billion of capital in the last three years. At the current market value of Rp 1 trillion, it’s 6.4X sales, 1.95X assets, 2.23X equity with a 6.6% profitability & no yield yet. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 25 billion. At 1.6% with a very generous 1X adjustment, this gives a higher target price of Rp265.
