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BOLA, expensive
Current, target price 266, 154 (-42%)
June 10th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales jump by 41%
Positive costs! (Interest income)
1 minute read
Sales jump by 41%
- ..:in the first quarter to 19 billion rupiah which is still far below our forecast of 43 billion rupiah, but cashflow receipts were 110 billion rupiah…!
- Average quarterly sales growth is now a wild +67%.
- We expect a more modest +25% average growth in this next 12 months which brings sales to 44 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Positive costs! (Interest income)
- The cash costs ratio of net profit add non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was positive 165% in the first quarter on interest income!
- The avenge quarterly cost ratio if now at -98%.
- We assume a return to a cost ratio of -91% in this next 12 months… Which with flat non cash costs of -2 billion rupiah gives a next 12 months net profit of 7 billion rupiah.
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Cashflow negative (investment)
Balance sheet, lower net cash
Value, expensive
- Despite the high cash receipts, negative working capital & -88 billion rupiah investment meant a negative -72 billion rupiah free cashflow in the first quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is however a small positive +8 billion rupiah.
- We assume investment spending is zero, which with higher sales gives a positive +3 billion rupiah quarterly free cashflow in this next 12 months
Balance sheet, lower net cash
- With negative cashflow, cashflow cash declined from 176 to 118 billion rupiah in the first quarter (note the cashflow & balance sheet don’t match…).
- Liabilities increased slightly from 79 to 85 billion rupiah. So net cash was down from 97 to 33 billion rupiah:
- With our forecast positive cashflow & no equity payout, the net cash will increase to 46 billion rupiah in 12 months.
Value, expensive
- BOLA net capital is now at -404 billion rupiah from the last three years.
- At the current market value 1,596 billion rupiah, based on forecasts, it’s 10.95X sales, 2.67X assets, 3.03X equity with a 1.3% profitability & no yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 15 billion rupiah, at a 1.6% valuation with no adjustment gives a -42% lower target price of 154 rupiah.
