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BKSL, sales growth rising
🎯 🏡 📈 Rp76
Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 2.56 trillion ⬇️
December 5th, 2020
1 minute read
Sales
Sales jumped by +88% in the third quarter from the second. Amazingly this brings the 12-month growth rate back up to +32%! Real estate sales were up +98% & at Rp 88 billion, total sales were 51% ahead of our forecast. We have an optimistic outlook, with sales rising back to Rp 236 billion by the third quarter next year.
Cashflow
Because of very low cash costs, operating cashflow was positive in the third quarter & free cashflow excluding working capital was too at +Rp 4 billion. That’s better than our forecast. Investment spending is slowing & we expect this to continue so that with higher sales, cashflow rises to positive Rp 58 billion by the third quarter of next year.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales jumped by +88% in the third quarter from the second. Amazingly this brings the 12-month growth rate back up to +32%! Real estate sales were up +98% & at Rp 88 billion, total sales were 51% ahead of our forecast. We have an optimistic outlook, with sales rising back to Rp 236 billion by the third quarter next year.
Cashflow
Because of very low cash costs, operating cashflow was positive in the third quarter & free cashflow excluding working capital was too at +Rp 4 billion. That’s better than our forecast. Investment spending is slowing & we expect this to continue so that with higher sales, cashflow rises to positive Rp 58 billion by the third quarter of next year.
Sales almost double $ growth rises, higher sales ahead, & margins, positive cashflow, higher target price...
Balance sheet
The balance sheet net debt has increased significantly in the last two years from Rp 1.3 trillion in early 2018 to now Rp 2.7 trillion, but the growth is slowing (Rp 2.6 trillion in the second quarter). With our forecast improved cashflow & assuming no dividend, net debt will be down slightly to Rp 2.66 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
Despite the improvement in sales, the third quarter was still a net loss of Rp 92 billion. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales remained high at 200%. We use the absolute quarterly costs Rp 176 billion which predicts a much lower next 12 months loss of Rp 40 billion.
Value
BKSL has raised a net capital of Rp 4.56 trillion in the last five years & counting. At Rp 3.3 trillion current value, it’s 4.81X sales, 0.18X assets, 0.32X equity with no profitability or yield yet. Our cashflow forecast (two positive quarters annualized) is Rp 155 billion. At 1.6% with a generous 0.5X valuation, gives a higher target price Rp76,
The balance sheet net debt has increased significantly in the last two years from Rp 1.3 trillion in early 2018 to now Rp 2.7 trillion, but the growth is slowing (Rp 2.6 trillion in the second quarter). With our forecast improved cashflow & assuming no dividend, net debt will be down slightly to Rp 2.66 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
Despite the improvement in sales, the third quarter was still a net loss of Rp 92 billion. The cash costs ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales remained high at 200%. We use the absolute quarterly costs Rp 176 billion which predicts a much lower next 12 months loss of Rp 40 billion.
Value
BKSL has raised a net capital of Rp 4.56 trillion in the last five years & counting. At Rp 3.3 trillion current value, it’s 4.81X sales, 0.18X assets, 0.32X equity with no profitability or yield yet. Our cashflow forecast (two positive quarters annualized) is Rp 155 billion. At 1.6% with a generous 0.5X valuation, gives a higher target price Rp76,
