Other shares here
BKSL, a 29% higher target price
Current 66 Target 85 +29%
November 12th 2021
1 minute read
Costs lower
Cashflow negative again
Balance sheet, higher leverage
Valuation, a 29% higher target price
1 minute read
- Sales dropped back -90%
- Sales dropped back -90% in the third quarter to 200 billion rupiah vs our 392 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 123% growth.
- We predict average growth of 14% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 272 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs lower
- The cash cost ratio was lower at -92% in the third quarter giving a 13 billion rupiah net profit.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -114% now.
- We use an even lower -85% average cost ratio to predict a 37 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow negative again
- Free cashflow was negative again -204 billion rupiah in the third quarter with -4 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 332 billion rupiah now.
- We assume 0 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 40 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, higher leverage
- Cash declined from 408 to 379 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 6,425 to 6,487 billion rupiah so net cash worsened from -6017 to -6108 billion rupiah
- With our forecast cashflow & a 0 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -5,952 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 29% higher target price
- BKSL capital from the last 27 quarters worsened to -3,437 billion rupiah in the third quarter but will be -3,281 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,220 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 0.25 X assets with a 107 years payback & a 0% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 156 billion rupiah which means an 27 X valuation. A 35 X valuation gives a 29% higher target price of 85 rupiah.
