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BKSL, a 142% higher target price
Current, target price 59, 143 (+142%)
September 9th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales to the moon
Costs higher
1 minute read
Sales to the moon
- It turns out that a year is an awfully long time in property… sales went up 323% in the second quarter to 1,960 billion rupiah which is mike’s above our forecast.
- Average quarterly growth is now an amazing 168%!
- We expect to moderate -1% a quarter back to 490 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2022.
Costs higher
- It was obviously a bit of a fire sale as the cost ratio was up from -47% to -97% & profit declined from 240 to 47 billion rupiah.
- In a hang over from last years low sales, average costs are at -138%.
- We use the Cashflow costs of -47% to predict a 254 billion rupiah profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow 1.3 trillion rupiah
Pays down leverage
A 142% higher target price
- Free cashflow jumped to 1,314 billion rupiah with a sensible 0 billion rupiah investment spend:
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now 365 billion rupiah.
- We assume the zero investment continues & therefore Cashflow will be at 258 billion rupiah in the second quarter of 2022.
Pays down leverage
- Cash jumped from 166 to 408 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Liabilities declined from 7,927 to 6,425 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -7,761 to -6,017 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast Cashflow & assuming there’s no equity payout, net cash will improve to -4,935 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
A 142% higher target price
- BKSL capital from the last five years improved to -3,250 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current value 4,028 billion rupiah, based on forecasts, it’s at a low 0.24X assets with no yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 1,082 billion rupiah so the valuation is now 4X. At 9X this gives a 142% higher target price of 143.
