## BIRD, only 1.3X capital paid

Current, target price Rp1,290, 3,908 (+203%)

May 6th , 2021

1 minute read

Sales, expecting faster growth

Cashflow, positive plus investment gains

1 minute read

Sales, expecting faster growth

- Sales declined by -3% in the first quarter to 480 billion rupiah, which is -3% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 23% jump in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 0%.
- We predict fast average growth of 11% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 719 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, positive plus investment gains

- Cashflow was positive 130 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 71 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter on investment gains.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 97 billion rupiah.
- We use investment spending of -27 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a similar average quarterly cashflow of 98 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

## Sales flat, but more recovery expected ahead, cashflow positive, de leveraging & only 1.3X capital paid, higher target price...

Balance sheet, de leveraging

Profit, will turn positive

Value, only 1.3X capital paid

- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -1,021 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -1,219 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -1,724 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -3 billion rupiah...
- ...net cash will be -633 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, will turn positive

- The net loss was higher at -28 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -5 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -81%.
- We use the same -81% costs, to predict a positive next 12 months profit of 18 billion rupiah.

Value, only 1.3X capital paid

- BIRD cumulative net capital is at 2,137 billion rupiah from the last six years.
- At the current market value of 3,228 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s at only 1.29X capital paid, 1.24X sales, 0.47X assets, 0.62X equity, with a 0.3% profitability & a 0.1% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 391 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment, gives a 203% higher target price of 3,908 rupiah.