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BDMN, a 4% yield
Current, target price 2,170, 8,694 (+301%)
July 30th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales flat
Higher margins
1 minute read
Sales flat
- Sales inched up by 0.4% in the second quarter to 4,539 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 4,796 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to -3%
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 5,054 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Higher margins
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add on cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to -55% in the second quarter but profit was lower at 497 billion rupiah in higher provisions.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -57%.
- We use the latest -55% costs to predict a 729 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow up
Balance sheet negative growth
Value, a 4% yield
- Cashflow was up to 2,654 billion rupiah with lower investment spending of -1,425 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is now at 1,424 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -1,425 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 857 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet negative growth
- Other assets growth was a small negative -0.1% in the second quarter & average growth is the same.
- Liabilities also declined by -0.3% in the second quarter which is also equal to the avenge.
- The sales to asset ratio was stable at 2.3% in the second quarter which is also equal to the recent average.
Value, a 4% yield
- BDMN capital from the last six years improved to 24,998 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 21,210 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 1.08X sales & only 0.11X assets with a 4% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 3,147 billion rupiah. At 27X (3.7% yield), this gives a 301% higher target price of 8,694 rupiah.
