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BDMN, sales finally up
Current, target price Rp2,693, 11,624 (+332%)

April 30th, 2021
1 minute read

Sales, finally up
  • Sales finally increased by 5% in the first quarter to 4,523 billion rupiah, which is +3% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after a -15% decline in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to -5%.
  • We predict average growth of 1% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales back up to 5,044 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, lower
  • Cashflow was at -3,232 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 9,747 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 2,183 billion rupiah.
  • We use investment Cashflow of -1,155 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives an average quarterly cashflow of 909 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

Sales finally up as sales to assets rises, expecting positive asset growth ahead, market value is only 1.1X the capital paid, higher target price...

Balance sheet, higher sales to assets
  • Non-cash asset growth was negative -3.0% in the first quarter, after 1.7% in the fourth quarter. Average quarterly growth is now at -1.1%.
  • The sales to assets ratio was up to 2.3% in the first quarter from 2.2% in the fourth quarter & a 12 month average of 2.4%.
  • We use positive +1.3% average quarterly asset growth & a flat 2.3% sales to assets ratio in our forecasts.

Profit, lower provisions
  • Net profit was positive again at 539 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -452 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Provisions were lower at 1,218 billion rupiah, the cash costs ratio of net profit add non-cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up at -58%.
  • We use the same -1,218 billion rupiah provisions, & -58% costs to predict a much higher next 12 months profit, 2,742 billion rupiah.

Value, only 1X capital paid
  • BDMN cumulative net capital is at +23,998 billion rupiah from the last five years.
  • At the current market value of 26,323 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s only 1.10X capital paid, 1.35X sales, 0.12X assets, 0.57X equity, with a 6.0% profitability & a 3.1% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 3,636 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a 332% higher target price of 11,624 rupiah.