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BDMN, sales to rebound
🎯 💰 📈 Rp9,744
Last 12-month cashflow +Rp 2.69 trillion ⬆️
November 23rd, 2020
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Sales
After a sharp second quarter decline, -17%, sales growth was back to a small positive +0.4% in the third quarter from the second. Interest from loans declined -2%, other revenue was up by +13%. The sales to asset ratio was steady at 3.3%. We expect this ratio to rise to 3.6% & sales to grow +8.8% this next 12 months.
Cashflow
Cashflow turned negative last year, but has been improving in 2020 despite the difficult environment . The 12 month free cashflow is at Rp 2.69 trillion as of the third quarter, although the third quarter itself is negative -Rp 3.47 trillion. With sales now recovering, we expect cashflow to be higher at Rp 3.1 trillion over this next 12 months.
After a sharp second quarter decline, -17%, sales growth was back to a small positive +0.4% in the third quarter from the second. Interest from loans declined -2%, other revenue was up by +13%. The sales to asset ratio was steady at 3.3%. We expect this ratio to rise to 3.6% & sales to grow +8.8% this next 12 months.
Cashflow
Cashflow turned negative last year, but has been improving in 2020 despite the difficult environment . The 12 month free cashflow is at Rp 2.69 trillion as of the third quarter, although the third quarter itself is negative -Rp 3.47 trillion. With sales now recovering, we expect cashflow to be higher at Rp 3.1 trillion over this next 12 months.
Assets growth is positive again, sales will rebound fast, cashflow rise, higher payouts & a 5.3% yield means a higher target price...
Balance sheet
In the balance sheet, the key growth in other short term assets which drives revenue, has returned to a positive growth of 1.4% in the third quarter after -2% in the second. Average growth is now +0.6%. We expect the average growth of other short term assets to rise back to a faster +1.7% rate in this next few quarters.
Profit
Net profit jumped back to a positive Rp 649 billion in the third quarter as provisioning fell in half to Rp 947 billion. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation, provisions minus sales as a % of sales was 71%. We use the average 68% to predict a higher next 12 months profit of Rp 4.77 trillion.
Value
BDMN has paid out Rp 17.1 trillion of capital in the last five years. At Rp 26.8 trillion current value, it’s 1.57x capital paid, 0.98X sales, 0.14X the other short term assets, 0.57X equity with a 10.1% profitability & a 5.3% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 3.05 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjusted gives a higher target Rp9,744.
In the balance sheet, the key growth in other short term assets which drives revenue, has returned to a positive growth of 1.4% in the third quarter after -2% in the second. Average growth is now +0.6%. We expect the average growth of other short term assets to rise back to a faster +1.7% rate in this next few quarters.
Profit
Net profit jumped back to a positive Rp 649 billion in the third quarter as provisioning fell in half to Rp 947 billion. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation, provisions minus sales as a % of sales was 71%. We use the average 68% to predict a higher next 12 months profit of Rp 4.77 trillion.
Value
BDMN has paid out Rp 17.1 trillion of capital in the last five years. At Rp 26.8 trillion current value, it’s 1.57x capital paid, 0.98X sales, 0.14X the other short term assets, 0.57X equity with a 10.1% profitability & a 5.3% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 3.05 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjusted gives a higher target Rp9,744.
