Other stocks here
BBRI, a huge recovery in sales
🎯 💰 📈 Rp7,357
Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 13,885 billion ⬇️
November 13th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Watch the explainer ⬇️
Sales
Sales had a big recovery in the third quarter up +20% from the second quarter. At Rp 37 trillion, sales were just Rp 1 billion different from our forecast! Interest revenue was up +16% while other revenue jumped +35%! We expect assets growth will help sales to rise back to STP Rp 40.6 trillion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
As sales recovered, cashflow recovered too, but was still negative -Rp 5.6 trillion as the investment cashflow was a record minus Rp 71.2 trillion! We expect investment cashflow to return back to the long term average, which when combined with our sales gives a back to positive average quarterly free cashflow of Rp 8 trillion in this next 12 months.
Sales had a big recovery in the third quarter up +20% from the second quarter. At Rp 37 trillion, sales were just Rp 1 billion different from our forecast! Interest revenue was up +16% while other revenue jumped +35%! We expect assets growth will help sales to rise back to STP Rp 40.6 trillion by the third quarter of next year.
Cashflow
As sales recovered, cashflow recovered too, but was still negative -Rp 5.6 trillion as the investment cashflow was a record minus Rp 71.2 trillion! We expect investment cashflow to return back to the long term average, which when combined with our sales gives a back to positive average quarterly free cashflow of Rp 8 trillion in this next 12 months.
Big sales recovery, cashflow still negative but will turn +, capital payouts rising, lots of upside...
Balance sheet
In the balance sheet other short term assets which we use to derive sales jumped +5%, bringing the 12 months average back to a normal 3%. We predict a conservative +2% growth for other short term assets this next 12 months. The ratio of sales to assets recovered to 2.7% & we use this ratio for this next 12 months.
Profit
With recovery in sales, net profit jumped +95% in the third quarter to Rp 3.96 trillion even as provisions increased to Rp 9 trillion. The cash cost ratio net profit add depreciation & provisions minus sales as a % of sales was steady, 62%. We use 62% costs, lower provisions to predict a next 12 months profit, Rp 31.8 trillion.
Value
BBRI capital payouts has reached Rp 54.1 trillion & is forecast to rise to Rp 73.3 trillion. At Rp 484.3 trillion, its 8.95x capital paid, 3.06x sales, 0.32x other ST assets, 2.34x equity with a 15.3% profitability & 3.9% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 32.07 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.45x adjustment gives a much higher target price Rp7,357.
In the balance sheet other short term assets which we use to derive sales jumped +5%, bringing the 12 months average back to a normal 3%. We predict a conservative +2% growth for other short term assets this next 12 months. The ratio of sales to assets recovered to 2.7% & we use this ratio for this next 12 months.
Profit
With recovery in sales, net profit jumped +95% in the third quarter to Rp 3.96 trillion even as provisions increased to Rp 9 trillion. The cash cost ratio net profit add depreciation & provisions minus sales as a % of sales was steady, 62%. We use 62% costs, lower provisions to predict a next 12 months profit, Rp 31.8 trillion.
Value
BBRI capital payouts has reached Rp 54.1 trillion & is forecast to rise to Rp 73.3 trillion. At Rp 484.3 trillion, its 8.95x capital paid, 3.06x sales, 0.32x other ST assets, 2.34x equity with a 15.3% profitability & 3.9% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 32.07 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.45x adjustment gives a much higher target price Rp7,357.
