## BBRI, a 3.7% dividend

Target price Rp7,091

Last 12-month cashflow -Rp 49.3 trillion

February 10th,, 2021

1 minute read

Sales

Sales increased +6% in the fourth quarter to Rp 39.1 trillion after +20% in the third quarter. Sales were 1% below our forecast. Interest revenue increased +6%, other revenue +3%. Average quarterly growth is at 0%. We expect average growth to rise to +4% in the next 12 months, sales to reach Rp 44.8 trillion by the fourth quarter 2021.

Cashflow

Cashflow was finally back to a positive +Rp 19.7 trillion in the fourth quarter from -Rp 5.6 trillion in the third quarter. Average quarterly Cashflow is negative -Rp 12.3 trillion. We use average investment spending of Rp 6.8 trillion which combined with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly free Cashflow of Rp 8.6 trillion in this next 12 months.

1 minute read

Sales

Sales increased +6% in the fourth quarter to Rp 39.1 trillion after +20% in the third quarter. Sales were 1% below our forecast. Interest revenue increased +6%, other revenue +3%. Average quarterly growth is at 0%. We expect average growth to rise to +4% in the next 12 months, sales to reach Rp 44.8 trillion by the fourth quarter 2021.

Cashflow

Cashflow was finally back to a positive +Rp 19.7 trillion in the fourth quarter from -Rp 5.6 trillion in the third quarter. Average quarterly Cashflow is negative -Rp 12.3 trillion. We use average investment spending of Rp 6.8 trillion which combined with higher sales gives a positive average quarterly free Cashflow of Rp 8.6 trillion in this next 12 months.

## Sales recovery continues, positive cashflow, higher profit despite record provisions, a 3.7% yield, much higher target price...

Balance sheet

The non-cash assets increased +4% in the fourth quarter after +4% in the third quarter. Average quarterly growth is +2%. We expect growth to increase tan average +4% in the next 12 months. The sales to asset ratio was flat from the third quarter, 2.6%, vs 2.3% in the second quarter but lower than 3% at the end of 2019.

Profit

Net profit increased to Rp 4.5 trillion in the fourth quarter from Rp 3.9 trillion in the third, despite record provisions Rp 12 trillion. The cash costs ratio of net profit add non-cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was low 56%. We use average costs to predict an 86.7% higher next 12 months profit Rp 34.8 trillion.

Value

BBRI has paid capital of Rp 41.1 trillion in the last six years. At the current market value of Rp 570 trillion, it’s 14X capital paid, 3.4X sales, 0.35X otter assets, 2.67X equity with a 16.3% profitability & a 3.7% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 34.6 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment gives a higher target price Rp7,051.

The non-cash assets increased +4% in the fourth quarter after +4% in the third quarter. Average quarterly growth is +2%. We expect growth to increase tan average +4% in the next 12 months. The sales to asset ratio was flat from the third quarter, 2.6%, vs 2.3% in the second quarter but lower than 3% at the end of 2019.

Profit

Net profit increased to Rp 4.5 trillion in the fourth quarter from Rp 3.9 trillion in the third, despite record provisions Rp 12 trillion. The cash costs ratio of net profit add non-cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was low 56%. We use average costs to predict an 86.7% higher next 12 months profit Rp 34.8 trillion.

Value

BBRI has paid capital of Rp 41.1 trillion in the last six years. At the current market value of Rp 570 trillion, it’s 14X capital paid, 3.4X sales, 0.35X otter assets, 2.67X equity with a 16.3% profitability & a 3.7% yield. Our cashflow forecast is Rp 34.6 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment gives a higher target price Rp7,051.