## BBNI, closer to paying capital

Target price Rp9,759

Last 12-month cashflow +Rp 64.5 billion

February 4th,, 2021

1 minute read

Sales

Sales increased by another +6% in the fourth quarter to Rp 19.7 trillion after +6% growth in the third quarter too. Sales were 2% below our forecast. Average quarterly growth is now -1%. We expect average growth to turn positive +3% in this next 12 year months & sales to rise to Rp 21.9 trillion by the fourth quarter of 2021.

Cashflow

Cashflow was at Rp 4.1 trillion in the fourth quarter after reaching to Rp 25.1 trillion in the third quarter. Average quarterly cashflow is now at Rp 6.6 trillion. We use the fourth quarter investment cashflow of Rp 4.1 trillion which together with our higher sales forecast gives a next 12 months average quarterly free cashflow of Rp 3.64 trillion.

1 minute read

Sales

Sales increased by another +6% in the fourth quarter to Rp 19.7 trillion after +6% growth in the third quarter too. Sales were 2% below our forecast. Average quarterly growth is now -1%. We expect average growth to turn positive +3% in this next 12 year months & sales to rise to Rp 21.9 trillion by the fourth quarter of 2021.

Cashflow

Cashflow was at Rp 4.1 trillion in the fourth quarter after reaching to Rp 25.1 trillion in the third quarter. Average quarterly cashflow is now at Rp 6.6 trillion. We use the fourth quarter investment cashflow of Rp 4.1 trillion which together with our higher sales forecast gives a next 12 months average quarterly free cashflow of Rp 3.64 trillion.

## Sales growing, positive cashflow, getting closer to net capital payer, higher target price...

Balance sheet

Non cash asset growth was -3% in the fourth quarter after +4% in the third quarter. The average quarterly assets growth has slowed to just 1% from +6% back in 2016. The driver of sales growth was instead a higher sales to assets ratio of 2.3%, up from 2.1% in the third quarter, 2.5% in the fourth quarter last year.

Profit

The net loss was higher -Rp 1.02 trillion in the fourth quarter after a -Rp 114 billion loss in the third quarter. Non-cash costs were high but the cash costs ratio of net profit add non-cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was lower, 57%%. We use average costs to predict a next 12 months profit Rp 6.1 trillion.

Value

BBNI is closer to paying capital, raising a net -Rp 5.5 trillion the last six years. At the current market value, Rp 117 trillion, its 1.4X sales, 0.12X non cash assets, 0.99X equity with a 6.5% profitability & a 2% yield. Our cashflow forecast is lRp 14.5 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.2X adjustment gives a higher target price Rp9,759.

Non cash asset growth was -3% in the fourth quarter after +4% in the third quarter. The average quarterly assets growth has slowed to just 1% from +6% back in 2016. The driver of sales growth was instead a higher sales to assets ratio of 2.3%, up from 2.1% in the third quarter, 2.5% in the fourth quarter last year.

Profit

The net loss was higher -Rp 1.02 trillion in the fourth quarter after a -Rp 114 billion loss in the third quarter. Non-cash costs were high but the cash costs ratio of net profit add non-cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was lower, 57%%. We use average costs to predict a next 12 months profit Rp 6.1 trillion.

Value

BBNI is closer to paying capital, raising a net -Rp 5.5 trillion the last six years. At the current market value, Rp 117 trillion, its 1.4X sales, 0.12X non cash assets, 0.99X equity with a 6.5% profitability & a 2% yield. Our cashflow forecast is lRp 14.5 trillion. At 1.6% with a 0.2X adjustment gives a higher target price Rp9,759.