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BBCA, flat sales
Current, target price 31,950, 40,912 (+28%)

April 24th, 2021
1 minute read

Sales, flat
  • Sales were flat in the first quarter at 21,676 billion rupiah which is -2% compared to our forecast,
  • This is after +3% growth in the fourth quarter & keeps the average quarterly growth to -1%.
  • We predict average quarterly growth of +4% in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 25,349 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, negative
  • Operating & investment cashflows combined dropped to -21,848 billion rupiah in the first quarter from positive 14,501 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • The average quarterly Cashflow is also negative at -6,161.
  • With less negative investment Cashflow of -6,518 billion rupiah combined with higher sales, we predict a positive avenge quarterly cashflow of 5,273 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

Sales flat on lowest sales to asset ratio, cashflow negative, expecting growth to pick up, a 2.1% yield & a slightly higher target price...

Balance sheet, slower growth
  • Non cash asset growth was 2% in the first quarter, from 6% in the fourth quarter. Average quarterly growth is 3%.
  • The sales to assets ratio was down to 2.0% in the first quarter from 2.1% in the fourth quarter & a 12 month average of 2.1%.
  • We use 3% average asset growth & 2.1% sales to assets in our forecasts.

Profit, margins still strong
  • Net profit was 7,043 billion rupiah in the first quarter form 7,102 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
  • Provisions were -3,254 billion rupiah, the cash costs ratio of net profit add non-cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales, -50%.
  • We use -2,865 billion rupiah provisions, -51% costs to predict a higher next 12 months profit, 33,207 billion rupiah.

Value, a 2.1% yield
  • BBCA has a cumulative net capital of 46,252 billion rupiah the last six years.
  • At the current market value 787,731 billion rupiah, it’s at a forecast 12.53X capital paid, 8.14X sales, 0.64X non-cash assets, 4.03X equity with a 17.0% profitability & a 2.1% yield.
  • Our cashflow forecast is 21,093 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.8X adjustment, gives a 34% higher target price, 42,775 rupiah.