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BBCA, 5-digits average cashflow
Current, target price 30,175, 54,070 (+79%)
July 23rd, 2021
1 minute read
Sales slightly lower
Costs, margins remain strong
1 minute read
Sales slightly lower
- Sales declined by -0.4% in the second quarter to 21,586 billion rupiah which is below our forecast 22,810 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to just 1%.
- We predict average growth of 3% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 24,522 billion rupiah by the second quarter 2022.
Costs, margins remain strong
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was down again to -49% in the second quarter & profit was up to 7,222 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are now at -50%.
- We use the average -50% costs to predict a 8,637 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, average heads to 5 digits
Balance sheet, assets faster than liabilities
Value, a 79% higher target price
- Cashflow was lower at 8,003 billion rupiah with higher investment spending of -1,058 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- But average quarterly Cashflow has now improved to a five digit 10,132 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -1,058 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 11,157 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, assets faster than liabilities
- Non cash asset growth was up from 2% in the first quarter to 4% in the second quarter.
- Liabilities growth also increased but from 2% in the first quarter to 3% in the second quarter, so average asset growth was faster than liabilities growth for the first time since 2019.
- But the sales to asset ratio fell further to a new low of1.9% in the second quarter. We expect this to now reverse.
Value, a 79% higher target price
- BBCA capital from the last six years increased to 56,915 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 744,000 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 8.08X sales & 0.65 assets with a 3% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 41,661 billion rupiah. At 32 (3.1% yield), this gives a 79% higher target price of 54,070 rupiah.
