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AUTO, cheap at less than 2X capital paid
Current, target price Rp1,165, 5,026 (+332%)
April 21st, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, higher than forecast
Cashflow, very strong
1 minute read
Sales, higher than forecast
- Sales increased seasonally by 12% in the first quarter to 3,616 billion rupiah, which is 9% above our forecast.
- This is after a 9% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 8%.
- We predict average growth of 5% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 4,404 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, very strong
- Cashflow was a higher positive 406 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 335 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter on higher sales.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now at 300 billion rupiah.
- We use the latest quarter investment spending of -45 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives an average quarterly cashflow of 194 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.
Sales beat our forecast, strong cashflow, very cheap at less than 2X capital paid, much higher target price...
Balance sheet, lower leverage than last year
Profit, slightly lower margin
Value, cheap at less than 2X capital paid
- Despite the positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -2,762 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -2,406 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter but much better than -3,785 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -217 billion rupiah...
- ...net cash will improve to -2,204 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Profit, slightly lower margin
- Net profit was lower at 172 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 250 billion rupiah in the third quarter on higher costs, lower JV income.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -95%.
- We use lower -94% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 433 billion rupiah.
Value, cheap at less than 2X capital paid
- AUTO has paid out capital of 2,935 billion rupiah in the last five years.
- At the current market value of 5,613 billion rupiah, its at only 1.91X capital paid, 0.35X sales, 0.36X assets, 0.48X equity, with a 4% profitability & a 3.9% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 775 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a 332% higher target price of 5,026 rupiah.
