AUTO, only 1.99X capital paid
Target price Rp4,111
Last 12-months cashflow +Rp 1.06 trillion
March 12th,, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
Cashflow
1 minute read
Sales
- Sales increased another 9% in the fourth quarter to Rp 3.24 trillion after a 64% jump in the third quarter, but a -53% decline in the second quarter.
- This makes average quarterly growth 5%.
- We expect the same average 5% quarterly growth in this next 12 months & sales to return to Rp 3.97 trillion by the fourth quarter 2021.
Cashflow
- Cashflow was Rp 335 billion in the fourth quarter from a record Rp 686 billion in the third quarter. T
- he average quarterly Cashflow is Rp 265 billion.
- After two quarters of investment gains, we use average investment spending of Rp 56 billion, which with higher sales gives a quarterly average cashflow of Rp 198 billion in this next 12 months.
Sales recovering, record cashflow, de leveraging, only 1.99X capital paid, shares to return to Rp4k...
Balance sheet
Profit
Value
- With positive cashflow, the balance sheet leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -Rp 2.4 trillion in the fourth quarter from -Rp 2.9 trillion in the third quarter & -Rp 3.6 trillion a year ago.
- With our forecast positive free cashflow & o dividend Rp 252 billion ...
- ...the net cash will improve further to -Rp 1.9 trillion in 12 months time.
Profit
- Net profit was Rp 250 billion in the fourth quarter up from Rp 49 billion in the third quarter as JV income was positive again.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was 93%.
- We use the same 93% to predict a positive next 12 months met profit, Rp 507 billion.
Value
- AUTO has paid out capital of Rp 2.7 trillion the last five years.
- At the current market value of Rp 5.3 trillion, it’s only 2X capital paid, 0.4X sales, 0.4X assets, 0.5X equity with a 4% profitability & 4.8% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is Rp 793 billion . At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment, gives a higher target price of Rp4,111.