## ASII, a great opportunity to buy

Current, target price Rp5,225, 19,419 (+272%)

April 21st , 2021

1 minute read

Sales, up again

Cashflow, still strong

1 minute read

Sales, up again

- Sales increased by 15% in the first quarter to 52 trillion rupiah, which is 13% above below our forecast.
- This is after an 11% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to positive 1%.
- We predict average growth of 5% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 61 trillion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, still strong

- Cashflow was higher at 9 trillion rupiah in the first quarter up from 6 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now at 13 billion rupiah (with investment gains).
- We use the latest quarter investment spending of -1 trillion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a still strong average quarterly cashflow of 8 trillion rupiah in this next 12 months.

## Sales up, margins up, cashflow still strong, de leveraging, cheap, much higher target price...

Balance sheet, lower leverage

Profit, margins improve

Value, a great opportunity

- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -93 trillion rupiah in the first quarter from -95 trillion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -142 trillion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast strong cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -12 trillion rupiah...
- ...net cash will improve further to -73 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, margins improve

- Net profit was higher at 5 trillion rupiah in the first quarter from 2 trillion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down to -84%.
- We use the same -84% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit loss of 23 trillion rupiah.

Value, a great opportunity

- ASII has paid capital of 77 trillion rupiah in the last five years.
- At the current market value of 211.5 trillion rupiah, its at only 2.80X capital paid, 0.90X sales, 0.62X assets, 0.99X equity, with an 11% profitability & a 5.4% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 31.4 trillion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.4X adjustment, gives a 272% lower target price of 19,419 rupiah.