Log in here
ASII
Astra International, debt is falling
🎯🚗📈➡️ Rp11,221
12m free cash flow Rp28.8tn ⬆️⬆️
August 5th, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Watch the 3 minute explainer using the data file & model ⬇️
Sales
Sales growth slumped to -37% in the 2Q which is far below our forecast & the 5th quarter in a row of negative sales growth. Auto was down -60%, heavy equipment -28% & agriculture was up +2%. We expected a recovery from the 3Q on wards which gives -2.3% growth of the next 12 months to a still huge Rp205.8tn.
Cashflow
Despite the weakness in sales, cashflow was very strong. Operating cashflow was higher than a year ago thanks to positive working capital & the sale of Bank Permata gave an investment gain. With that gain cashflow is averaging Rp7.2tn the last 12 months & our forecast without investment gain is for Rp3.6tn in the next 12 months, excluding working capital.
Sales growth slumped to -37% in the 2Q which is far below our forecast & the 5th quarter in a row of negative sales growth. Auto was down -60%, heavy equipment -28% & agriculture was up +2%. We expected a recovery from the 3Q on wards which gives -2.3% growth of the next 12 months to a still huge Rp205.8tn.
Cashflow
Despite the weakness in sales, cashflow was very strong. Operating cashflow was higher than a year ago thanks to positive working capital & the sale of Bank Permata gave an investment gain. With that gain cashflow is averaging Rp7.2tn the last 12 months & our forecast without investment gain is for Rp3.6tn in the next 12 months, excluding working capital.
Sales recovery, strong cashflow, lower debt, higher shares...
Balance sheet
The Permata Bank stale sale has had a huge impact on the balance sheet where the high net debt which was at Rp70.4tn as of the 1Q, has come down to Rp43.2tn in the 2Q. With our forecast for more positive cashflow in the next 12 months, the net debt will come down to Rp28.7tn assuming there’s no dividend payment.
Profit
Excluding gains from the Bank Permata sale, net profit was Rp1.7tn in 2Q which is down -70% from a year ago. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales, is at 83% for the last 12 months. We use this 83% to forecast the next 12 months net profit Rp20.4tn, -25.8%.
Value
ASII current market value is at Rp200tn. That’s pretty cheap at just 0.97x our sales forecast, only 0.57x the value of the assets & 0.94x the equity with a profitability of 10%. Yield is forecast at 0%. We sure our 1.6% cashflow valuation with a 50% discount because of the debt. This still gives a much
The Permata Bank stale sale has had a huge impact on the balance sheet where the high net debt which was at Rp70.4tn as of the 1Q, has come down to Rp43.2tn in the 2Q. With our forecast for more positive cashflow in the next 12 months, the net debt will come down to Rp28.7tn assuming there’s no dividend payment.
Profit
Excluding gains from the Bank Permata sale, net profit was Rp1.7tn in 2Q which is down -70% from a year ago. The cash cost ratio of net profit add back depreciation minus sales as a % of sales, is at 83% for the last 12 months. We use this 83% to forecast the next 12 months net profit Rp20.4tn, -25.8%.
Value
ASII current market value is at Rp200tn. That’s pretty cheap at just 0.97x our sales forecast, only 0.57x the value of the assets & 0.94x the equity with a profitability of 10%. Yield is forecast at 0%. We sure our 1.6% cashflow valuation with a 50% discount because of the debt. This still gives a much
