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ASII, an 8% yield
Current, target price 4,720, 19,983 (+323%)
August 1st, 2021
1 minute read
Sales up again
Costs stable
1 minute read
Sales up again
- Sales increased by another 8% in the second quarter to 55,700 billion rupiah which is above our forecast 52,734 billion rupiah.
- This brings the average quarterly growth to 12%
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 65,070 billion rupiah in the second quarter 2022.
Costs stable
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add on cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was stable at -84% in the second quarter & profit jumped to 6,443 billion rupiah.
- Average quarterly costs are also at -84%.
- We use -84% costs to predict a 7,948 billion rupiah net profit in the second quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, 45 trillion rupiah last 12 months
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Value, an 8% yield
- Cashflow was lower at 6,477 billion rupiah with investment spending of -868 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- Average quarterly Cashflow has now at 9,471 billion rupiah.
- We use the same -868 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales gives a 9,582 billion rupiah cashflow in the second quarter 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- With positive cashflow cash increased in the second quarter from 56,575 to 58,000 billion rupiah.
- Liabilities also increased slightly from 149,644 to 150,000 billion rupiah so the net cash improved from -93,069 to -92,000 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast positive cashflow & a -15,107 billion rupiah equity payout the net cash will improve to -70,355 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Value, an 8% yield
- ASII capital from the last SIX years improved to 84,352 billion rupiah in the second quarter.
- At the current market value of 191,100 billion rupiah, based on our forecasts, it’s at 0.76X sales & only 0.55X assets with a 8% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 36,752 billion rupiah. At 22X (4.5% yield), this gives a 323% higher target price of 19,970 rupiah.
