## ASGR, a 7.3% yield

Current, target price Rp807, 3,478 (+331%)

April 22nd , 2021

1 minute read

Sales, seasonally down

Cashflow, still positive

1 minute read

Sales, seasonally down

- Sales decreased seasonally by -38% in the first quarter to 617 billion rupiah, which is -38% below our forecast...
- This is after a 12% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to a flat zero.
- We predict average growth of 21% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales back to 1,138 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, still positive

- Cashflow was still positive 71 billion rupiah in the first quarter after positive 451 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter despite lower sales.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now positive 123 billion rupiah.
- We use higher quarterly investment spending of -3 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives an average quarterly cashflow of 91 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

## Seasonally lower sales, but margins improving, cashflow still positive & 491 billion the last 12 months, a 7.3% yield, higher target price...

Balance sheet, heading to net cash

Profit, margins improving

Value, a 7.3% yield

- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -161 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -246 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -678 billion rupiah a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -77 billion rupiah...
- ...net cash will turn positive +125 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, margins improving

- Net profit was seasonally lower but positive at 1 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 8 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down to -91%.
- We use the same -91% costs, to predict a 4X higher next 12 months profit of 154 billion rupiah.

Value, a 7.3% yield

- ASGR has paid out capital of 692 billion rupiah in the last six years.
- At the current market value of 1,052 billion rupiah, it’s at only 1.49X capital paid, 0.26X sales, 0.47X assets, 0.64X equity, with a 9.4% profitability & a 7.3% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 363 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.2X adjustment, gives a 331% higher target price of 3,478 rupiah.