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ANTM, to capital payer
Current, target price Rp2,630, 3,842 (+46%)

May 7th, 2021
1 minute read

Sales, small decline
  • Sales had a small decline of -1% in the first quarter to 9,211 billion rupiah, which is -10% compared to our forecast.
  • This is after a 6% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 25%.
  • We predict average growth of 7% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 11,881 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, huge
  • Cashflow was huge at 1,776 billion rupiah in the first quarter after 910 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with lower investment spending.
  • Average quarterly cashflow is now at 884 billion rupiah.
  • We use flat investment spending of -104 billion rupiah, which with higher sales, gives a slightly lower average quarterly cashflow of 728 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

Sales down slightly, margins strong, huge Cashflow, de leveraging & will turn a net capital payer now, higher target price...

Balance sheet, de leveraging
  • With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -7,565 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -8,706 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -9,585 billion rupiah a year ago.
  • With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -744 billion rupiah...
  • ...net cash will improve to -5,396 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, up with FX
  • Net profit was higher at 630 billion rupiah in the first quarter from 313 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter with an FX gain.
  • The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was up to -93%.
  • We use the same -93% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 2,480 billion rupiah.

Value, to capital payer
  • ANTM cumulative net capital is at -2,581 billion rupiah from the last six years but will now turn positive.
  • At the current market value of 63,216 billion rupiah, based on forecasts it’s 190.51X capital paid (just starting), 1.40X sales, 1.96X assets, 2.94X equity, with an 11.5% profitability & a 1.2% yield.
  • Our free cashflow forecast is 2,913 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a 44% higher target price of 3,787 rupiah.