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ANTM, a 22% higher target price
Current 2,390 Target 2,927 +22%
November 16th 2021
1 minute read
Sales climbed 14%
Costs 1 point higher
Cashflow higher from working capital
Balance sheet, lower leverage
Valuation, a 22% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales climbed 14%
- Sales climbed 14% in the third quarter to 9,201 billion rupiah vs our 8,468 billion rupiah forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 2% growth.
- We predict average growth of 5% in the next 12 months to bring sales to 10,993 billion rupiah in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 1 point higher
- The cash cost ratio was 1 point higher at -91% in the third quarter giving a 551 billion rupiah net profit.
- The Cashflow cost ratio is at -85% now.
- We use the latest -91% cost ratio to predict a 803 billion rupiah profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow higher from working capital
- Free cashflow was higher at 1,746 billion rupiah in the third quarter from working capital & despite a higher -293 billion rupiah investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 1,189 billion rupiah now.
- We assume lower -194 billion rupiah investment spending which with higher sales but lower margins gives a 838 billion rupiah Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, lower leverage
- Cash increased from 5,122 to 6,368 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 12,455 to 12,957 billion rupiah so net cash improved from -7,333 to -6,589 billion rupiah.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -1,222 billion rupiah equity payout net cash will be -4,614 billion rupiah in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 22% higher target price
- ANTM capital from the last 27 quarters improved from -2,061 to -1,607 billion rupiah in the third quarter with a -454 billion rupiah liabilities payment. Capital will be positive 1,590 billion rupiah in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 57,430 billion rupiah based on our forecasts it’s at 1.73 X assets with an 8 years payback & a 2.1% yield.
- Our cashflow forecast is 3,197 billion rupiah which means an 18 X valuation. A 22 X valuation gives a 22% higher target price of 2,927 rupiah.
