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AMZN, another sales surge
Target price USD3,996
Last 12-month cashflow +USD 20.4 billion
February 3rd,, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
Sales jumped by +31% in the fourth quarter, the fastest quarterly growth since 2017, to USD 125.6 billion. That’s 4% ahead of our forecast USD 120.2 billion. Average quarterly growth is now at 11%. We expect the average quarterly growth to be +5% in the next 12 months & sales to reach USD 146 billion by the fourth quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was a record USD 14.9 billion in the fourth quarter higher than the USD 12.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. Average quarterly cashflow is now USD 5.1 billion. We use average investment spending of USD 8.7 billion which combined with higher sales gives an avenge quarterly free cashflow of USD 7.3 billion in this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
Sales jumped by +31% in the fourth quarter, the fastest quarterly growth since 2017, to USD 125.6 billion. That’s 4% ahead of our forecast USD 120.2 billion. Average quarterly growth is now at 11%. We expect the average quarterly growth to be +5% in the next 12 months & sales to reach USD 146 billion by the fourth quarter 2021.
Cashflow
Cashflow was a record USD 14.9 billion in the fourth quarter higher than the USD 12.9 billion in the fourth quarter of 2019. Average quarterly cashflow is now USD 5.1 billion. We use average investment spending of USD 8.7 billion which combined with higher sales gives an avenge quarterly free cashflow of USD 7.3 billion in this next 12 months.
Sales surge, higher cashflow ahead, only 2X assets, higher target price...
Balance sheet
The balance sheet net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was higher at -USD 185.7 billion in the fourth quarter from -USD 127 billion in the third quarter & -USD 127.1 billion a year ago. With our forecast cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of USD 30 billion, the net cash will be -USD 177 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
With higher sales, net profit was up to USD 7.2 billion in the fourth quarter from USD 6.3 billion in the third quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was higher at 89%. We use a lower 85% costs to predict a higher next 12 months profit, USD 43 billion.
Value
AMZN has raised net capital of USD 16.1 billion the last six years, but will turn payer. At the current market value, USD 1.5 trillion, it’s only 3X sales, 2X assets, 14X equity with a 34% profitability & a 2% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 29.1 billion. At 1.6% with no adjustments, gives a higher target price USD 3,843.
The balance sheet net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was higher at -USD 185.7 billion in the fourth quarter from -USD 127 billion in the third quarter & -USD 127.1 billion a year ago. With our forecast cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of USD 30 billion, the net cash will be -USD 177 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
With higher sales, net profit was up to USD 7.2 billion in the fourth quarter from USD 6.3 billion in the third quarter. The cash cost ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was higher at 89%. We use a lower 85% costs to predict a higher next 12 months profit, USD 43 billion.
Value
AMZN has raised net capital of USD 16.1 billion the last six years, but will turn payer. At the current market value, USD 1.5 trillion, it’s only 3X sales, 2X assets, 14X equity with a 34% profitability & a 2% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 29.1 billion. At 1.6% with no adjustments, gives a higher target price USD 3,843.
