The next bull
November 2nd, 2020
⏰ 1 minute read
⏰ 1 minute read
Corona bull ends ...
June
Did you know... stock markets are the same now as in June! That’s soon 6 months ago! Dow futures were 27,271 on June 6th. Now the Dow futures are 26,740. The JCI index was 5,070 on June 7th, now it’s slightly higher, 5,115, but the rupiah was 13,863 that day, now it’s 14,652. It’s time for the next bull run.
Corona
Three reasons we are going to have a new bull run. First is the Corona virus uptrends are breaking down. In the US there have been 3 waves up since March, each following a trend, each lasting 40 days. Yesterday the trend was broken again. Here in Indonesia we have had one long up-trend, this one broke down yesterday too.
Growth
Second reasons is economies are rebounding very fast. US GDP growth was up +9% in the third quarter from the second quarter. Here in Indonesia our corporate sales are bouncing back too. We’ve basically avoided recession & now we’re in the fourth quarter which is the best & fastest growth of the year . This year could be a record!
Risk
The third reason is risk is back on. We’ve seen the traditional measure of global risk, US 10 year bond yields, collapse this year. That means investors are avoiding risky equities. But in the last couple of weeks, bond yields are suddenly rising. The yield could now jump & this is a sign of investors shifting into equities like Indonesia.
New highs
How far could things go? Our bet is this wave of Corona is the last. Combine that with what’s likely to a very strong economic growth quarter.. Conbine that with the fact our stockmarket is lower than 1 year ago & 2 years ago... The logical conclusion is we will have a very big jump.. to new all time highs.
Did you know... stock markets are the same now as in June! That’s soon 6 months ago! Dow futures were 27,271 on June 6th. Now the Dow futures are 26,740. The JCI index was 5,070 on June 7th, now it’s slightly higher, 5,115, but the rupiah was 13,863 that day, now it’s 14,652. It’s time for the next bull run.
Corona
Three reasons we are going to have a new bull run. First is the Corona virus uptrends are breaking down. In the US there have been 3 waves up since March, each following a trend, each lasting 40 days. Yesterday the trend was broken again. Here in Indonesia we have had one long up-trend, this one broke down yesterday too.
Growth
Second reasons is economies are rebounding very fast. US GDP growth was up +9% in the third quarter from the second quarter. Here in Indonesia our corporate sales are bouncing back too. We’ve basically avoided recession & now we’re in the fourth quarter which is the best & fastest growth of the year . This year could be a record!
Risk
The third reason is risk is back on. We’ve seen the traditional measure of global risk, US 10 year bond yields, collapse this year. That means investors are avoiding risky equities. But in the last couple of weeks, bond yields are suddenly rising. The yield could now jump & this is a sign of investors shifting into equities like Indonesia.
New highs
How far could things go? Our bet is this wave of Corona is the last. Combine that with what’s likely to a very strong economic growth quarter.. Conbine that with the fact our stockmarket is lower than 1 year ago & 2 years ago... The logical conclusion is we will have a very big jump.. to new all time highs.
