Other stocks here
ADRO, a 195% higher target price
Current 1,755 Target 5,169 +195%
December 1st 2021
1 minute read
Sales at 1 billion dollars
Costs 12 points lower, profit almost tripled
Cashflow much higher
Balance sheet, cash jumps
Valuation, a 13% yield, 195% higher target price
1 minute read
Sales at 1 billion dollars
- Sales jumped 16% in the third quarter to 1,006 million dollars vs our 871 million dollars forecast.
- This brings the quarterly average to 15% growth.
- We predict average growth of 4% in this next 12 months to bring sales to 1163 million dollars in the third quarter of 2022.
Costs 12 points lower, profit almost tripled
- The cash cost ratio was .12, points lower at -63% in the third quarter giving an almost 3X higher 276 million dollars net profit.
- The average Cashflow cost ratio is at -69% now.
- We use a -66% cost ratio to predict a 275 million dollars profit in the third quarter of 2022.
Cashflow much higher
- Free cashflow was much higher from 234 to 397 million dollars in the third quarter with -129 million dollars investment Cashflow.
- Average quarterly Cashflow is at 203 million dollars now.
- We assume the same -129 million dollars investment spending which with higher sales gives a 266 million dollars Cashflow in the third quarter of 2022.
Balance sheet, cash jumps
- Cash jumped from 1,208 to 1,511 million dollars in the third quarter.
- Liabilities increased from 2,693 to 2,794 million dollars so net cash improved from -1,485 to -1,283 million dollars.
- With our forecast cashflow & a -511 million dollars equity payout net cash will be -809 million dollars in 12 months time.
Valuation, a 13% yield, 195% higher target price
- ADRO capital from the last 27 quarters was a little lower at 1,599 million dollars in the third quarter with 6 million dollars more liabilities & a -3 million dollars equity payout but will jump to 2,627 million dollars in12 months time.
- At the current market value of 4,010 million dollars based on our forecasts it’s at 0.56 X assets with a 6 years payback & a 13% yield.
- Our 12 month cashflow forecast is 984 million dollars which means an 4 X valuation. A 12 X valuation gives a 195% higher target price of 5,169 rupiah.
