## ACST, cashflow positive!

Current, target price Rp282, 379 (+35%)

April 20th , 2021

1 minute read

Sales! way ahead of forecast

Cashflow, positive!

1 minute read

Sales! way ahead of forecast

- Sales jumped by 57% in the first quarter to 381 billion rupiah, which is 31% above our forecast.
- This is after a 14% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to positive 2%.
- We predict average growth of 21% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales back to 822 billion rupiah by the first quarter of 2022.

Cashflow, positive!

- With higher sales, Cashflow was positive again 19 billion rupiah in the first quarter after negative -217 billion rupiah in the third quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is still negative -141 billion rupiah.
- We use zero investment spending, which together with higher sales, gives a less negative average quarterly cashflow of -3 billion rupiah in this next 12 months.

## Sales up a second quarter, cashflow even positive, expecting a bigger recovery & higher target price...

Balance sheet, still high leverage

Profit, lower loss forecast

Value, slightly higher tarhrt

- Despite positive negative cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -2,738 billion rupiah in the first quarter from -2,658 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter & -3,895 billion rupiah a year ago (new equity).
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming there’s no dividend payout ...
- ...net cash will improve to -2,678 billion rupiah in 12 months time.

Profit, lower loss forecast

- With higher sales, the first quarter net loss was lower at -81 billion rupiah from -587 billion rupiah in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales improved to -113%.
- We use lower -98% costs as sales recover, to predict a much lower next 12 months loss of -65 billion rupiah.

Value, slightly higher tarhrt

- AVST has raised capital of -2,791 billion rupiah in the last six years.
- At the current market value of 1,812 billion rupiah, its at 0.72X sales, 0.61X assets, 10.12X equity, with no profitability & no yield yet.
- Our furthest quarter annualized cashflow forecast is positive 78 billion rupiah. At 1.6% with a 0.5X adjustment, gives a 35% higher target price of 379 rupiah.