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AAPL, simply amazing sales
Target price USD207
Last 12-month cashflow +USD 81 billion
January 28th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales
Wow., sales growth was a record +72% in the December quarter to USD 111.4 billion, which is 23% above our forecast! This brings the quarterly average growth up to 12%. Product sales almost doubled. We expect average growth to be a slower +4% in this next 12 months with sales rising to USD 118 billion by this December quarter 2021.
Cashflow
With higher sales, cashflow also rose to a record USD 35.3 billion in the December quarter, up from USD 18.8 billion as of September. The quarterly average is now at USD 20.1 billion. Using the average investment spending USD 2.6 billion, together with higher sales, gives a higher average free cashflow of USD 23.6 billion in this next 12 months.
1 minute read
Sales
Wow., sales growth was a record +72% in the December quarter to USD 111.4 billion, which is 23% above our forecast! This brings the quarterly average growth up to 12%. Product sales almost doubled. We expect average growth to be a slower +4% in this next 12 months with sales rising to USD 118 billion by this December quarter 2021.
Cashflow
With higher sales, cashflow also rose to a record USD 35.3 billion in the December quarter, up from USD 18.8 billion as of September. The quarterly average is now at USD 20.1 billion. Using the average investment spending USD 2.6 billion, together with higher sales, gives a higher average free cashflow of USD 23.6 billion in this next 12 months.
Higher sales, higher cashflow, strong margins, conservative valuation, higher target price...
Balance sheet
Our balance sheet leverage measure of net cash minus total liabilities increased to a new record -USD 251.8 billion in the December quarter up from -USD 220.5 in the September quarter. With our forecast for higher free cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of USD 78 billion, the net cash will improve to -USD 235 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit more than doubled to USD 28.8 billion in the December quarter, up from USD 12.7 billion in September. The cash costs ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was lower fat 70%. We use an average 71% costs to predict the next 12 months profit rises + 42% to USD 86.6 billion.
Value
AAPL has paid USD 315 billion of capital the last five years. At the current market value USD 2.4 trillion, it’s 7.7X capital paid, 6.6X sales, 3.2X assets, 32X equity with a 121% profitability & a 3.4% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 94.5 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.6X adjustment gives a still higher target price of USD 207.
Our balance sheet leverage measure of net cash minus total liabilities increased to a new record -USD 251.8 billion in the December quarter up from -USD 220.5 in the September quarter. With our forecast for higher free cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of USD 78 billion, the net cash will improve to -USD 235 billion in 12 months time.
Profit
Net profit more than doubled to USD 28.8 billion in the December quarter, up from USD 12.7 billion in September. The cash costs ratio of net profit add depreciation minus sales as a percent of sales was lower fat 70%. We use an average 71% costs to predict the next 12 months profit rises + 42% to USD 86.6 billion.
Value
AAPL has paid USD 315 billion of capital the last five years. At the current market value USD 2.4 trillion, it’s 7.7X capital paid, 6.6X sales, 3.2X assets, 32X equity with a 121% profitability & a 3.4% yield. Our cashflow forecast is USD 94.5 billion. At 1.6% with a 0.6X adjustment gives a still higher target price of USD 207.
