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AAPL, Cashflow forecast above 100 billion
Current, target price Rp134, 246 (+84%)
April 29th, 2021
1 minute read
Sales, seasonally strong
Cashflow, also strong
1 minute read
Sales, seasonally strong
- Sales seasonally decreased by -20% in the first quarter to 89,584 million dollars, which is +10% compared to our forecast.
- This is after a 72% increase in the fourth quarter & brings the quarterly average growth to 16%.
- We predict average growth of 5% a quarter in this next 12 months which will bring sales to 97,960 million dollars by the first quarter of 2022.
Cashflow, also strong
- Cashflow was down to 21,712 million dollars in the first quarter from million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- Average quarterly cashflow is now at 22,618 billion rupiah.
- We use flat investment spending of -2,269 million dollars, which with higher sales, gives a higher average quarterly cashflow of 28,028 million dollars in this next 12 months.
Sales seasonally lower but much higher than expected, margins very strong, cashflow forecast above 100 billion dollars, means cheap to capital paid, much higher target price...
Balance sheet, de leveraging
Profit, still higher margins
Value, cheap to capital paid
- With positive cashflow, the net leverage of cash minus total liabilities was -229,514 million dollars in the first quarter from -251,820 million dollars in the fourth quarter but still up from -201,801 million dollars a year ago.
- With our forecast higher cashflow & assuming a dividend payout of -94,128 million dollars ...
- ...net cash will improve to -211,531 million dollars in 12 months time.
Profit, still higher margins
- Net profit was seasonally lower at 23,630 million dollars in the first quarter from 28,755 million dollars in the fourth quarter.
- The cash cost ratio of net profit add back non cash costs minus sales as a percent of sales was down further to -69%
- We use -70% costs, to predict a higher next 12 months profit of 104,587 million dollars.
Value, cheap to capital paid
- AAPL cumulative net capital is at +326,421 million dollars from the last six years.
- At the current market value of 2,284,250 million dollars, based on our forecasts it’s 5.2X capital paid, 5.5X sales, 6.9X assets, 28.7X equity, with a 131% profitability & a 4.1% yield.
- Our free cashflow forecast is 112,111 million dollars. At 1.6% with a 0.6X adjustment, gives a 84% higher target price of 246 dollars.